Once again, the out-of-touch Atlas Forum strikes again!
Most seem aware of the fact that there is political polarization in this country and that the left has a relative bias built into the EC, yet simultaneously project scenarios in which there is so much political fluidity that Republicans can barnstorm their way to a landslide victory (something they haven't done in nearly 30 years) in a country that continues to move further leftward on economics relative to the period in which the last landslide R victory happened - against somebody who is socially non-offensive and who advocates for economics that were not controversial in the slightest over most of the past century, no less.
(god that was a long sentence)
The Republicans couldn't even come close to beating an unpopular black man with a milquetoast record in an economy with >7% unemployment by running Middle America/independents' 20th century wet dream of a white bread presidential candidate.
The whole "self-avowed socialist" tripe doesn't matter, either, as the Republicans have completely exhausted the extent of the effect such marketing against a candidate like Sanders would have today because they have been identifying (very loudly, might I add) Democrats and the Democratic nominee for President as socialist for the better part of a decade. The boy who cried wolf, etc etc - if you want an Atlas-relevant example of how this won't matter one bit, then
click here.
New Hampshire won't abandon Sanders; they're quite used to his approach from a variety of relevant candidates and elected officials. I think some may be under-estimating just how much latent racism exists in that part of the country. For every Democratic leaner he'll lose for 'SOCIALISM!', he'll gain one for being a white messenger of leftist policies. A similar sentiment applies to IA, and to the Upper Midwest in general, where "socialism" historically has had a stronger presence and where the narrative of it being bad - even with the cultural and political changes present - is going to stick even less so than nationally. I tend to think that he'll even do remarkably well in Ohio, but a Republican would likely pull off a victory there. PA isn't in danger of flipping in a presidential year any time soon, period.
He'd lose VA & FL for obvious reasons, and would probably lose CO (though I think it'd be comparably as close as OH, if not more so). He'd carry CO against someone like Trump for sure (and win the election based on that alone), and maybe even VA in the same scenario.
tl;dr: Sanders has a very narrow margin between his floor and his ceiling; 265 is his floor, 274 would be his likely average against a weak candidate and/or in a favorable climate, and an average of about 305 is his (truly max) ceiling.Republican - 273 EVs - 49.9%Sanders - 265 EVs - 48.3%
