Are you sure about the Springfield, Illinois one? It includes St. Louis and some democratic portions of Iowa, and the Republican parts of St. Louis look to be outside of it, so that would add a couple hundred thousand Democratic votes.
Looks like you're right. FWIW, I was using DRA where applicable to project 2012 results in some cases (didn't use it on this state), but on this, seeing how much the area in general swung to Romney, I was thinking there was no way Obama could have won.
The IL area swung from
50-47 to at least
53-45, and the MO part appears to have swung from
70-28 to
66-32. I went back and calculated it - the state appears to be around
50-48 in 2012.