GA: Survey USA: Perdue re-takes lead

[Adam Griffin]

I know SUSA crosstabs are always wacky, but is it realistic that Perdue is winning the early vote 54/44?

No

Georgia, ballots cast:

(Figures with "(^)" next to them indicate group as a % of early voters is consistently increasing)
(All 2014 early voting totals are through Sunday, 10/26; 2010 totals are for entire early vote period)

Georgia is looking quite good for Democrats so far. There has been an seven-point swing thus far in early voting turnout by likely party when compared to 2010 (!!), with it being likely that the number will continue to improve for Democrats over the remainder of this week, if historical trends are any indicator. The number of unknown affiliated being slightly higher is potentially an indicator that there are more first-time voters voting early.

By race, blacks are two percentage points more of the electorate than they were in 2010, and that number will also continue to increase. In 2010, blacks were 29% of EVs and the final number was 28%, suggesting that the total black share of the electorate in 2014 could very well be 30-31%.

The female percentage of the vote is still a bit below 2010 numbers but steadily increasing, and is on track to meet or surpass 2010 numbers. The current breakdowns by age when compared to 2010 are the least optimistic, but thankfully in Georgia (at least in this case), voting preference by age is relatively uniform across the board.

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[Adam Griffin]

To follow-up, I did three calculations based on historic preference by race, what the polls have consistently showed by gender, and the likely party breakdowns available via voter file's early vote results posted above. All three were quite close to one another, so I'm confident in this estimate:

Race: Nunn 50.8
Gender: Nunn 49.5
Party: Nunn 50.1

Considering early vote in GA is usually only a point or so more "Democratic" by race than it is on Election Day, Nunn is likely looking at 49-50% of the vote when this is all said and done (sigh).

[Adam Griffin]

To follow-up, I did three calculations based on historic preference by race, what the polls have consistently showed by gender, and the likely party breakdowns available via voter file's early vote results posted above. All three were quite close to one another, so I'm confident in this estimate:

Race: Nunn 50.8
Gender: Nunn 49.5
Party: Nunn 50.1

Considering early vote in GA is usually only a point or so more "Democratic" by race than it is on Election Day, Nunn is likely looking at 49-50% of the vote when this is all said and done (sigh).

It's very hard to lock down party affiliation in Georgia because the primaries are basically open primaries. Voter affiliation can change from year-to-year based on which primary voters want to vote in.

As to your other point, statistically, it's very plausible that Perdue holds a 54-44 edge with early voters, just as much as it's plausible that Nunn holds a 54-44 edge. The sample size of about 103 voters (17% of 611 LV) is too small to make any reliable statistical determination given the MOE is between 9-10%.

This is true, but I know my own state's tendencies with regards to primaries, the voter file, and the scoring models used to assess them. If you take Georgia and break it down into counties that are Democratic-dominant and Republican-dominant with respect to primaries (breaking the areas where primaries are competitive in terms of # of voters and weighting in favorably to the Republicans, as is usually the situation), then you get 62% of the state living in Republican-dominant areas. If anything, the party score is favorable to Republicans, as there are more people who regularly vote in R primaries (but who are D) than vice-versa.

I also checked other DNC scoring models against this, and am relatively confident in the assessment. For instance, the "Obama 2012 Scoring Model" (assesses likelihood of someone voting for Obama in 2012) shows 54/46 Romney in the two-way support dynamic. This is the least "optimistic" model to use for gauging likely Democratic voters in Georgia. I highly doubt Nunn is doing worse than Obama, and even the most Republican-favored model shows she's doing slightly better than he among early voters.

I'm not sure how the poll relates to my assessment, as I'm "polling" (at the time) over 400,000 early voters' demographic and voting characteristics via the VAN.