I'd really like to see a non-internal poll this race, Landmark is not trustworthy. The last two non-landmark polls have Deal up 6 and 7 points respectively. As it is, though, Deal really needs to start governing well and run a strong campaign. Regardless of what CNN and Rothenberg may think, Carter's a strong contender and Deal's record is bad. I still have this at Lean R (as I have the whole cycle, I never thought for a minute that Deal was anywhere near Safe given his 2010 performance in which he barely avoided a runoff), but only just. A poll from a reliable company showing Deal up by 3 or less, or a Carter lead, would be all that's needed for me to move this from Lean R to Toss-Up.
For the second or third time: it's not an internal - it has a house bias. Those are two different things. Besides, the only reason you would make that argument is if it had a
Democratic bias and was showing Carter up by 7-8, not the other way around.
And the last two non-Landmark polls occurred before the biggest round of ethics scorching for Deal, so they're not exactly something that should be cited in my opinion.
