IL-We Ask America: Rauner (R) up 12

[Adam Griffin]

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

Some WAA 2012 IL Congressional Polls:


IL-8 (10/29/12): Duckworth 55%, Walsh 45% (D+10)
IL-8 (Election): Duckworth 55%, Walsh 45% (D+10)

IL-10 (10/29/12): Dold 54%, Schneider 46% (R+8)
IL-10 (Election): Schneider 51%, Dold 49% (D+2)

IL-11 (10/29/12): Foster 50%, Biggert 50% (Tie)
IL-11 (Election): Foster 59%, Biggert 41% (D+18)

IL-12 (10/29/12): Enyart 51%, Plummer 46% (D+5)
IL-12 (Election): Enyart 52%, Plummer 42% (D+10)

IL-13 (10/29/12): Davis 50%, Gill 45% (R+5)
IL-13 (Election): Davis 47%, Gill 46% (R+1)

IL-17 (10/29/12): Schilling 52%, Bustos 48% (R+4)
IL-17 (Election): Bustos 53%, Schilling 47% (D+6)

Red = outside of MoE

[Adam Griffin]

Definitely take it with a grain of salt. It was commissioned by a blogger, which means more than likely, it was an automated poll and not live interviews. Automated polling is fine, if you're a tested pollster. WAA doesn't have a great track record. When you combine this with the fact that 1/3 of the calls were to mobile phones, I'm very skeptical. It's not like I'm automatically skeptical of either method; just when it comes to this pollster.

I wouldn't characterize the source as just a blogger. The site is run by one of the longest serving and most read (by insiders) statehouse reporters. He started his service providing a daily fax (hence the name) to subscribers before there was a web. He has posted about where and why pollsters have failed or succeeded in IL, so I suspect that he has had discussions with WAA about what to ask and what sample to select.

Oh, I didn't mean to suggest that he was just any average blogger. Even if his site looks a bit antiquated (probably due to him being around for so long), I could tell that it had to be a fairly prominent political blog in the state. Rather, I was suggesting that since it was presumably paid for by him, that it was most likely an automated poll and not a live interview one.