Office of Game Moderator - Part Deux - PLEASE READ THINGS

[Adam Griffin]

While discussions between Atlasia and Canada in regards to the Atlasian-Canadian Common Market are still ongoing, many Canadian officials have expressed concerns over the lack of details offered in terms of economic and social changes that can be expected. In order to provide some clarity to the situation, the Office of Game Moderator of Atlasia has released its tentative findings for what can be expected in the months and years following any such economic cooperation.

• An elimination of border control functions related to customs enforcement and immigration would reduce costs associated with enforcement by roughly $15 billion annually between the two countries – roughly equivalent to 3% of the value of annual trade between Atlasia and Canada.

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• Immigration policies between Atlasia and Canada, as such, would likely experience a convergence as both countries seek to normalize free movement between one another. With minimal resources allocated to enforce differing immigration protocols, a consensus would ultimately be reached.

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• With most trade and customs barriers removed, the long-term effects on unionization rates remain unclear. Currently, Atlasia’s unionization rate stands at approximately 15%; Canada’s hovers around 30%. The A-CCM would create conditions that could foster an increased unionization of Atlasia – coupled with the Labor Rights Act – but could also result in non-unionized Atlasian manufacturers having the upper-hand against Canadian manufacturers, more of which are unionized.

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• Agricultural subsidies would be gradually phased out as a result of the A-CCM, leading to a fair playing field between both countries. It is estimated that more than $30 billion will be saved annually between the two countries once this part of the A-CCM is achieved.

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• Over the first decade, the A-CCM is estimated to increase the exportation of Atlasian goods to Canada by 7.5-9.1% when compared to baseline projections, and the exportation of Canadian goods to Atlasia by 5.8-7.3% by the same measurement. This would result in roughly $32-37 billion in additional trade between the two countries by 2023.

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• The effects of emigration and population generally would favor the Atlasia, with an expected 1.2 million Atlasians permanently relocating to Canada for residency and work-related endeavors over the next decade. As it pertains to Canadian residents permanently relocating to Atlasia over the same timeframe, the number is estimated to be 700,000 - nominally smaller but a more substantial figure in terms of percentage of the country’s population.

It is the opinion of the Office of Game Moderator that if such legislation were passed by the Atlasian Senate and signed by the President within the next two weeks, the Canadian Government will likewise act swiftly upon the matter and a resolution will be reached by the beginning of July. Upon ratification of the A-CCM by Canada, major elements such as current residency restrictions between the two countries would be lifted. While both countries will have an array of details through which to sort in the coming days, weeks and months, action on behalf of the Atlasian Senate in regards to these details is not paramount and will certainly be addressed by the various departments and agencies of each country.

[Adam Griffin]

Here are some GIFs! Each one shows the changes in regional and national offices for each party over the past year (Federalist/Whig & IB, Labor and Liberal):

And finally, a Balance of Power GIF over the past year:

[Adam Griffin]

GM Griffin, would you be able to provide me with union density/union membership numbers for Atlasia and the regions? I figured they'd be different than IRL thanks to more union-friendly legislation existing, and I'd like to know for something I'm typing up/proposing as legislation if I get elected.

Thanks.

Overall     Private    Public

14.9%       10.1%      36.1%

10.1%       7.5%        27.8%    IDS
15.0%       11.4%      29.6%    ME
16.2%       11.8%      43.2%    MW
17.3%       13.6%      34.8%    NE
17.9%       9.5%        46.2%    PAC

[Adam Griffin]

Hi, could you please calculate the median personal income for the IDS?

IDS Median Personal Income (Ages 20 and over): $32,726

Nat'l Median Personal Income (Ages 20 and over): $31,762

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9.5K-35K      -5%                           ESTIMATED COST: 79.21 B                
35K-80K      22%                                    
80K-170K    28%       
170K-350K  35%                             ESTIMATED COST: 7.72 B               
350K-1M     40%                             ESTIMATED REVENUE: 8.56 B               
1M-10M      50%                             ESTIMATED COST: 187.48 B               
10M+         60%                             ESTIMATED REVENUE: 212.37 B      

CURRENT PROJECTED 2013 SURPLUS: $53.97 B

TOTAL COST: $53.48 B

REMAINING SURPLUS: $0.49 B[/quote]

GM Griffin, would you be able to tell us Mideasterners roughly how much additional revenue our region generates due to the fines specified in section 3 of the Mideast Speed Limits Act?

This is the full text of the bill:

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Approximately 20% of all traffic fines would fall under this category. Assuming these individuals would have been ticketed prior for such offenses, calculating the difference is a tad difficult without knowing prior fine amounts. However, it is estimated that this law would apply to approximately 2.05 million citations per year @ $175/avg citation = $0.358 B (2013).

[Adam Griffin]

I imagine it's quite a lot of work for you but could you assess the Mideast Dog Welfare Act for us? It's a very long piece of legislation but it seems like section 18 is the most relevant for our purposes. Thanks!

I'm having a hard time understanding your analysis of the Mideast Budget.

Can you give me a list of what legislation you specifically analyzed to calculate it, and what changes those bills made  to the budget?

It's been nearly two months - unfortunately, I did not keep my paper scribblings as I assessed the budget. With so many new bills passed since then and apparently some being missed, it would be preferable if the Mideast can document all recently passed legislation and add it to the Wiki. Once this is done, I will be happy to furnish a new estimate for the 2013 budget from scratch; it'll be much more effective than the piece-mealing that is ongoing.

P.S.: Tmth and I had some issues when assessing the first budget on various parts - mainly pertaining to 'Fees' and 'Business and Other'. While these were ultimately clarified, it would be nice to know which pieces of legislation passed in the previous two months specifically fall under these categories.

[Adam Griffin]

Just making a public note that I have received budget requests for both the Mideast and the Northeast. While the Mideast budget revisions are mostly complete, I've had very little time over the past couple of days to complete this due to work and real-life issues.

I'm sorry to fall behind on these - in addition to the regular weekly updates that I provide. All current requests and regular updates will be handled in-full by Saturday night at the latest. Thanks for your patience.

[Adam Griffin]

The revised Mideast Budget for 2013 is now available.

[Adam Griffin]

When I was composing the approval poll for the cabinet, I wondered something when I typed you into the selection boxes.


Where's the financial panic?

I assume you mean the Financial Report and are not referencing the Mideast? The most recent unemployment report already showed quite an upset at the regional level for the Pacific. As mentioned earlier, I'm a bit behind but catching up on things this evening.

You will soon have your answer.  

[Adam Griffin]

FYI: A tentative budget analysis for the Northeast has been provided to Governor-elect Sirnick.

[Adam Griffin]

Current as of 6/29/2013

National GNP & Growth Stats:

GNP: $14.93 trillion
GNP 6-Month Growth: -0.19%

2013 Projected Federal Revenue: $2.97 trillion
2013 Projected Federal Revenue As % of GDP: 19.91%

CPI (1 month) +0.08%
CPI (Last 12 months) +3.61%

Gold: $1571.70/oz
Crude Oil: $88.63/barrel

ANSE: 902.07
NASDAQ: 2274.82



*ME & PAC budgets not completed for 2013; ME Regional Revenue & Revenue as % of GDP based off of prior estimates

[Adam Griffin]

Seeing as how I have neglected to include the national unemployment figures in each of the past three unemployment reports, here is a chart illustrating the change in unemployment over the past twelve months:

Point of clarification: after further review, the preliminary unemployment estimate for May 2013 was off due to a typo in my spreadsheet formulas. Here is the revised estimate:

Employment estimates for June will be released on Friday, July 5th.

[Adam Griffin]

Has anyone contacted you regarding the High Speed Rail bill in terms of the improvements in the past? A yes or no answer will suffice.

Nope.

[Adam Griffin]

Despite last minute economic concerns, Canadian Parliament passes, President Harper signs A-CCM

July 4, 2013
Nyman

Just in time for Independence Day, the Canadian Parliament has ratified the Atlasian-Canadian Common Market proposal, heralding a new era for relations between the two countries.

The proposal made its way through the House of Commons with ample support – 199-109 – but faced strong headwinds in the Senate as a looming economic crisis began to unfold in the Pacific region. Ultimately, the A-CCM passed the Senate 59-46 – with strong backing from the Liberal Party and a slight majority backing from Prime Minister Harper's Conservative Party.

Over the coming weeks, both countries will be required to appoint a commission to inspect and collaborate on uniform border security measures – along with anti-terrorism protocols – to be enacted no later than January 1, 2016.

With the passage of the Atlasian-Canadian Common Market Agreement, border restrictions relating to the movement of Atlasian citizens have now been lifted in many regards. Atlasian citizens who reside in Canadian provinces will have the many of the same privileges of citizenship at the federal and regional levels, depending on the province in question.

Those who may find themselves in Quebec and New Brunswick will be considered full residents of the Northeast region, while those in Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, Labrador and Nova Scotia will be considered residents of the Southeast region. Atlasian citizens in Ontario and Nunavut will be considered residents of the Mideast, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta will fall under the purview of the Midwest. The Pacific region – whose fate is now in the hands of the Supreme Court – will offer many of the same rights of citizenship to those Atlasians who reside in British Columbia or the Yukon Territory.

Over the coming weeks and months, both the Harper and Nix administrations expect to work with one another on various elements of the A-CCM, such as trade and customs protocols, long-term plans for the reduction of agricultural subsidies and ways in which reconciliation of key regulations can be achieved.

GUIDE TO RESIDENCY:

[Adam Griffin]

With Pacific's fate still in the balance, national unemployment indicators look grim; country on the verge of recession?

For a second straight month, Atlasian unemployment numbers rose markedly according to the June 2013 unemployment report. The steepest rise in unemployment in years, many economists and business leaders are quietly panicking as the turmoil that erupted in the Pacific in May has taken on new proportions.

A de-facto devolution of regional government in the Pacific throughout the month of May led to sharp increases in unemployment in the Pacific – from 9.9% in April to 11.7% in May. During and following this time, the recall of the Pacific Council and the Governor of the Pacific created a climate that provoked many businesses into laying off workers as an anticipated fall-out from the lack of government unfolded.

The situation appears to have only gotten worse throughout the month of June, following the anarchy that transpired in the wake of the Pacific Government's dissolution by both National Movement – Aliya Mustafina and Labor Party associates. The unemployment rate in the month of June skyrocketed to 14.8% - the highest ever recorded in the region's history – as the Supreme Court continues to assess the constitutional validity of such moves.

Some economists are baffled at the lack of immediate action taken by federal authorities. With no emergency provisions enacted by the federal government – through executive order or through Senate legislation - to ensure furloughs and other job losses are avoided, the region's economic activity has ground to a halt. Last week's financial report ascertained that the Pacific region has lost 10% of its GDP over the past month alone, which is causing a spill-over into the national economy.

At the national level, unemployment has been dramatically affected by the current economic climate of the Pacific. In May, the unemployment rate jumped 0.5 points – from 7.4% in April to 7.9% in May – but these developments appear to be just the beginning of what could be a potential recession. The June unemployment rate spiked even higher, rising to 8.6%.

Over the past six months, GNP has shrank by nearly 0.2%, leaving many business leaders worried that further inaction on behalf of the federal government could result in disastrous consequences. Inaction has not been the only catalyst, however; other regions are experiencing marked increases in unemployment due to various actions taken as a result of the Pacific dissolution.

The Imperial Dominion of the South saw its biggest increase in unemployment in recent years, jumping from 7.2% in May to 7.7% in June. This is believed to have been caused by members of the regional government who – more so than any other region – attempted to enact legislation that would formally annex the Pacific and deploy the Imperial Guard into Pacific territory. Many industry analysts report that these kinds of actions resulted in tens of thousands of layoffs out of fear that an impending regional crisis – namely between the federal government and the IDS – would develop.

In the Midwest and Northeast, the same effects were felt but to a smaller degree, as proposed legislation in these regions did not gain the same level of steam as they did in the IDS. The Midwest and the Northeast each saw a 0.2-point increase in unemployment, while the Mideast unemployment rate remained unchanged for the month of June.

[Adam Griffin]

Unfortunately, these hockey stick graphs are unimpeachable.

Correct.

[Adam Griffin]

How has this affected major corporations? Are they all staying put in Silicon Valley and elsewhere in the Pacific, or are they beginning to move operations to other technology centers (and if they are, are there any steps regional executives could be taking to attract them)?

Economic cannibalism is not the answer to our country's problems.

I'm not gonna steal them away from the Pacific, just wondering if they're leaving anyways (because then I'd try to attract those who were leaving here, to try to fix our recent rise in unemployment).

The vast majority of those employed in impacted industries would fall into two categories: public sector employees who were furloughed due to the dissolution of the Pacific government, and service industries that are directly tied to local consumer spending. In either case, it would be difficult for another region to attract any new employment opportunities as a direct result of this, unless the trends of emigration seen in recent weeks continue or demand in other regions otherwise increases markedly.

A large amount of capital, however, has been moved out of the Pacific region in recent weeks as investors, corporations and venture capitalists fear the developing economic situation combined with the lack of a resolution as of yet. Fortunately, the vast majority of this has remained within the country (which explains why the negative growth outlined in the Financial Report wasn't worse). Still, business leaders and those in possession of large amounts of liquidity are hesitant to invest at this point, as they see no rectification of the current problem in sight and an apparent spill-over of these financial woes into the national economy.

What about the effect on banks and financial institutions, with exposure to Pacific bonds and other securities?

The key rates for major regional bonds would obviously be increasing substantially at this point, though I have no specific figures for you yet. It honestly would baffle me that any central banking authority would have been heavily invested in bonds for a region that has not passed a budget in over two years, had a barely-functional regional government for many months and has seen complete inactivity and federal intervention in the weeks leading up to the attempted dissolution of the regional government.

Furthermore, I can only find one region that explicitly has any information listed about its bonds: the Mideast. The Office of Game Moderator - to my knowledge - has not kept track of this specific information on bonds since 2009 (Purple State), but more information regarding this situation will be forthcoming.

[Adam Griffin]

Federal Reserve lowers key interest rate; initiates purchase of Pacific bonds
July 7, 2013

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 0.5 percent.

The pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly, owing importantly to a decline in consumer expenditures and several crises that have emerged in the Pacific. Business equipment spending and industrial production have weakened over the past month, and slowing economic activity in many foreign economies is damping the prospects for Atlasian exports. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil is likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit.

In light of the increases in the prices of energy and other commodities and the weaker prospects for economic activity, the Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters to levels consistent with price stability.

Recent policy actions, including today’s rate reduction and coordinated interest rate cuts by central banks should help over time to improve credit conditions and promote a return to moderate economic growth. Nevertheless, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will monitor economic and financial developments carefully and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.


In addition to lowering its target for the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve announced plans to purchase $65 billion in longer-term Pacific government debt from the private sector. The goal of this program is to bolster the economy in the wake of possible recession, spur job creation, and ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate.

The Fed has been mandated by law to promote maximum employment and price stability. The recent instability in the Pacific region and consistent stagnation of the regional economy resulted in an unacceptably high unemployment rate above the level the Fed judges to be consistent with its mandate. It is the Fed's job to do what it can responsibly do to help bring down unemployment to the lowest level the economy can sustain over the short and medium term.

Normally, when the economy is weak, unemployment is too high and inflation too low, the Federal Reserve lowers short-term interest rates. Lowering short-term interest rates in turn eases what economists call broader financial conditions—reducing the cost of longer-term finance and raising the value of assets such as stocks and homes. Lower interest rates in Atlasia typically results in some downward pressure on the foreign exchange value of the dollar as well. All these factors support spending, employment and growth.

[Adam Griffin]

Is it even legal to order the FED to reduce its interest rates?

The GM is supposed to simulate the actions of the FED. Therefore you could say he is the FED.

EDIT: Damn I hate when hotlinked images go bad

[Adam Griffin]

GM,

Would you mind getting me a list of all major cities that would qualify for federal aid under the terms of the SEDZI Act? And could you possibly give me an indication as to how much implementing SEDZs would cost in those cities?

Thanks!

I'll be happy to review and furnish said information within the next day or two.

[Adam Griffin]

There was a lot of silliness about confirming Griffin when he was nominated the first time. I'd just like to point out that he is doing a superb job, and the haters were wrong. #justsayin

Speaking as a one-time hater, I could not possibly agree more. We in the Senate really judged things wrong the first time around.

also thank you GM!

[Adam Griffin]

GM,

Would you mind getting me a list of all major cities that would qualify for federal aid under the terms of the SEDZI Act? And could you possibly give me an indication as to how much implementing SEDZs would cost in those cities?

Thanks!

FYI: a tentative list of 102 municipalities (with populations between 50,000-100,000) has been compiled. I will be comparing the list more closely to ensure that all cities meet the SEDZI criteria and will then proceed to provide an estimated cost for the proposal.

[Adam Griffin]

Where did you get these numbers from, since the Mideast taxes pensions:

Pension & Retirement Deductions ($26.08 billion)
$10.05 billion ..... Employer-paid Pensions (No Change)
$7.05 billion ..... 401Ks & Keogh plans (No Change)
$1.50 billion ...... IRAs (No Change)
$6.62 billion ..... Group and personal life insurance benefits (No Change)
$0.86 billion ...... Other retirement benefits (No Change)

I'm not understanding how there would be any deductions.  Employer-paid pensions are taxed at 1.5%, but that wouldn't be part of someone's earned income, and funds for 401Ks and IRAs are taxed before an employee puts money into them.

I'll be happy to look into this further, but the numbers (unchanged by my office for the 2013 budget) come from the 2012 Mideast Budget. I see that the former GM was not sure about these figures, either.

[Adam Griffin]

Since some will want to know and have asked, the federal deficit for 2013 is projected to be $31.74 billion, contrasting with a $64.34 billion projected surplus in April.


The following 75 cities meet all of the criteria set forth by the Social & Economic Development Zone Improvement Act (state and population included). These areas combined encompass a population of 5,427,452 individuals and it is estimated that approximately 4.2% of the aforementioned population would be employed via the "Atlasia Works" program if implemented.

With 80% of the costs of employment covered by the Federal Government, it is estimated that employing 228,000 workers for a period of 12 months (with an average gross wage of $25,000) would cost $4.1-4.7 billion.

In addition to this, the maximum amount that could be allocated to each SEDZ for the purpose of infrastructure improvements and various local projects to better the community is $15 million. For 75 cities and over a 12-month period, this would result in a maximum amount of $1.125 billion.

Tax relief provisions under the SEDZI Act would result in a decline of federal revenue between $6.0-6.6 billion over the next 12 months.

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[Adam Griffin]

Where did you get these numbers from, since the Mideast taxes pensions:

Pension & Retirement Deductions ($26.08 billion)
$10.05 billion ..... Employer-paid Pensions (No Change)
$7.05 billion ..... 401Ks & Keogh plans (No Change)
$1.50 billion ...... IRAs (No Change)
$6.62 billion ..... Group and personal life insurance benefits (No Change)
$0.86 billion ...... Other retirement benefits (No Change)

I'm not understanding how there would be any deductions.  Employer-paid pensions are taxed at 1.5%, but that wouldn't be part of someone's earned income, and funds for 401Ks and IRAs are taxed before an employee puts money into them.

I'll be happy to look into this further, but the numbers (unchanged by my office for the 2013 budget) come from the 2012 Mideast Budget. I see that the former GM was not sure about these figures, either.

Yeah, I didn't notice that last time, but that makes no sense to me.

So I found this, and have sent a PM to badger to see if he can help clear things up:

I see how I've missed pensions though as pensions are addressed via tax credits but not as budget spending.

Well, sort of. The tax credits you refer to....

Pension & Retirement Deductions ($46.49 billion)
$17.55 billion ..... Employer-paid Pensions (No Change)
$15.55 billion ..... 401Ks & Keogh plans (No Change)
$2.41 billion ...... IRAs (No Change)
$10.12 billion ..... Group and personal life insurance benefits (No Change)
$0.86 billion ...... Other retirement benefits (No Change)


....are federal tax deductions for various pension and retirement payments, but not the actual pension/retirement plan payments themselves. The payment of pensions is a separate matter to address. I'm really not sure if these deductions match what the various "Mideast" states in RL lose from exclusions from state taxation or not. Anybody?

However, if you put a gun to my head and forced a guess I'd say the deductions would be a smaller percentage compared to the federal budget, simply because state taxes rely more on sales and property taxes than income and estate taxes.

If someone wants to do even "tip of the iceburg" level research on this, using even just one RL "Mideastern" state, please feel free as it could save the region a lot of revenue. Calculating the relative share of tax breaks/exemptions for regional "spending" compared to the federal budget's share of "spending" would be a good first step.

I'd take a few minutes with a calculator and do it myself, but I gotta get to court.

[Adam Griffin]

Hello GM

In the Northeast budget, what exactly does the money earmarked for tax expenditure and public safety get spent on?

Thanks

I cannot be entirely sure of how all of this money is allocated, as that would be the jurisdiction of the NE Assembly and since no elaboration was provided, it's a bit hard to tell.

In regards to the tax expenditure section, this would cover aspects such as housing deductions and credits, corporate tax breaks, charitable contribution deductions, child tax credits, etc.

Public safety should pertain to regional law enforcement and any justice-related expenditures such as prisons, court operation costs, legal representation for the accused and the like.