Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Monday, 177,706 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Votes	%	Party
90230	50.77	Republican
82761	46.57	Democratic
4715	2.56	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 23.4%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 14.6%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Adam Griffin]

Abrams rebuttal to Evans’ “attack” ad:

https://youtu.be/g9W7Lc3d5W0

I'm amazed to see this ad. Evans' whole campaign has been focused on HOPE - and Abrams is nibbling at the hook. It implies movement - and the desire to cut it off at the pass. Why else bother responding?

This is (relatively) bad news for Abrams, but we still have another 4-5 days of early voting to go. In the past (at least for GEs), I'm fairly certain there has been an uptick in Democratic ballots (which in GA, more often than not, is indicative of black voters) in the final days - so things may change - but I'd be surprised that if the 61% figure remains where it is or drops, that it'll rise once ED voting is counted.

Just as an example, the early voting in the 2014 GE looked really good at the end of the period, as something like 33-34% of voters were black. In the end, about half early voted and half voted on ED, and the total black share of the electorate was 29%. If the trend doesn't break substantially, we could be looking at a black electorate around 55% - which is lower than I expected even in a status quo primary and/or with that potential uptick in non-black voters I hypothesized.

Abrams campaign is clearly shook by this uptick in white Dem ballot pulling in North Atlanta suburbs. I'm sure these GOP-crossovers are voting Evans and the hypothetical boon in African-American turnout Abrams has banked on is falling flat relative to the primary electorate as a whole. They were floating a number like 65% of the Democratic primary being black. I am eagerly awaiting the results out of Cobb, Forsyth, Cherokee, and the like.

Well, as you mentioned before and I also referenced, the final week could tilt differently due to more metro area voting sites opening. However, even if it does, that might not necessarily be indicative of the final result: one thing I forgot to mention about '14 specifically was that black turnout was several points higher at the end of early voting compared to early vote in 2010 (I believe it was 30% of the early electorate in 2010 and 33-34% in 2014), but in the end, that surge during early voting was basically a cannibalization of prior ED black vote; the black share of the electorate did edge up to 29% compared to 28% in 2010, but that was only a marginal shift in the grand scheme of things.

Likewise, more black voters may be waiting until Election Day this cycle instead of voting early (it wouldn't be too crazy for this to be the case, seeing as how this primary is far more contested up and down the ballot). All we can really be sure of is that time will tell!

[Adam Griffin]

Well, it's getting nasty:

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FWIW, there has been serious questioning about these figures going all the way back to 2014-15 within Democratic circles here. I'm not going to bother with repeating this hearsay and that, but according to some of the data and a lot of what I heard in the past, this isn't inherently an unfair or unfounded attack...but nevertheless a pretty weak one.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Tuesday, 204,968 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Big jump in turnout, favoring the GOP (over 55% of ballots cast today).

Votes	%	Party
105387	51.41	Republican
94452	46.08	Democratic
5129	2.50	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 26.7%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 17.1%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Wednesday, 234,825 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

Another big day for the GOP (57% of ballots cast/requested today were GOP; 41% Democratic).

Votes	%	Party
122437	52.14	Republican
106819	45.49	Democratic
5569	2.37	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 30.3%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 19.8%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Adam Griffin]

Is it just me that thinks that Evans internal looks kinda fishy? How does Evans has a 30 point lead among white voters and slightly winning among those under $40,000 while losing to Abrams with black voters by a slightly larger (33) margin and losing $40,000-$100,000 and $100,000+ groups?

It's possibly accurate, but yes, it looks a tad off - though maybe not as much as it seems. Presumably income in this situation is personal income and not household income (I've always wondered if every poll uses the same metric as the national exit polls, or does it vary depending on the poll?).

GA has one of the biggest discrepancies in median household income along racial lines of any state. The 2009 data is particularly stark: $55k for whites versus $32k for blacks.

However, in a Democratic primary, I'd imagine those numbers are less skewed. ATL is the Black Mecca and I'm sure there's a relatively huge percentage of likely black voters who fall into the >$40k income bracket, so it's not unrealistic to think Abrams would do well here.

As far as Evans winning the <$40k vote, it makes some sense if you look at the two campaigns' ad spending and assume that lower-income voters are probably more likely to base their vote off of paid media than those in the upper income categories, and that lower-income voters may be a larger share of rural GA than the state as a whole.

But yeah, the margins in that poll do seem unrealistic; the overall leans, however, aren't as crazy as they might seem.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Thursday, 273,839 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

The GOP composition of today's voters dropped a bit compared to yesterday (55% of ballots cast/requested today were GOP; 44% Democratic).

Votes	%	Party
143838	52.53	Republican
123950	45.26	Democratic
6051	2.21	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 35.1%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 23.3%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Adam Griffin]

JAHN BARRA is running for Secretary of State! I can already see the campaign ads:

"I'm Jahn Barra and long before I was born, my granddaddy used this lil' Smith and Wesson here to help stahp a literacy test"

IT'S HERE:

[Adam Griffin]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

We are laughing right now, but the data on the ground suggests Clinton voters in the metro are picking Dem ballots. I doubt these people, who formerly voted Republican, are going to be voting for Abrams. Add this to the other white groups voting dem - old school white dems who would never vote for an AA, and urban progressives who like college policies, and a Evans lead of 30% isn't too out there.

If you scan the past few pages for my comments, you'll see that I've maintained for months that there's a huge likelihood that there could be a non-black surge of voters fueled predominantly by metro ATL suburbrons that'd cancel out any meaningful gains in black vote. However, 53% of the electorate being black would be very low and would imply that not only did Abrams have no effect on the electorate, but that she actually hurt herself by campaigning.

I am skeptical, however, of any massive number of reliable GOP voters-turned-Democrats pouring into the contest. I think the vast majority of defectors will still likely vote in the GOP primary (since in many of the trending metro counties, this has been the de-facto general election and primary habits are hard to break). Where they'll really show their new colors is in the general election. In another cycle or two, the dynamic will flip (i.e. Democratic primary will become de-facto GE in places like Gwinnett and Cobb) and then those types will be pulling Dem primary ballots like crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: as of Friday, 340,255 AIP/ABM ballots have been cast or requested (via mail) in Georgia.

While there might be another half day's worth to report tomorrow (I can't remember if the SoS daily reports are through noon or if that is something proprietary to the voter file software I use elsewhere) and any returned ballots in the mail, the early vote is over.

Bigger day for Democrats, who pulled 50% of today's ballots (compared to the GOP's 48%). While not a huge difference, because of the sheer # of votes cast today (over 65k), this was enough to drop the GOP's margin in early voting from 7.3 points to 5.7 points.

Votes	%	Party
176346	51.82	Republican
157020	46.14	Democratic
6889	2.02	Non-Partisan/Other

Percentage of '14 DEM Primary (353,103): 44.5%
Percentage of '14 GOP Primary (617,876): 28.5%


And comparisons to previous primary composition:

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[Adam Griffin]

Griffin - what do you think the final early vote shares are going to be (once ED vote is factored in)? The early vote numbers look much closer than past primaries, but I'm wondering if we should expect the Republican share to balloon in size once all is said and done, so that it looks more like past elections?

Or is the Democratic share of GA expanding in a notable way?

Based on my gut, 57/43. GA Democrats have tended to increasingly cannabilize their ED vote via early voting, but this looks too far removed from the usual trends to be purely that. While I can't track down the specific statewide figures, I did look at a few key counties' early votes (as well as some randos) in 2014 and the difference between EV and ED in the primary was relatively miniscule (a few points in the margins).

Contrary to what any campaign or candidate may say, I believe the vast bulk of any improvement Georgia Democrats might enjoy this cycle will be organic and not reliant on any campaign's efforts. If Evans' internal did turn out to be right as far as the size of the black electorate, then one has to ask who the hell was responsible for the surge of all of these non-black voters comprising damn near 100% of the Democratic gains relative to 2014 (and of course the answer will be "Donald Trump" rather than "Stacey Abrams" or "Stacey Evans").

[Adam Griffin]

Since the DAMN SOS doesn't have one statewide absentee file available for 2014 and since I can't find anything to properly merge 159 spreadsheets, I haven't went through the data between the two cycles to compare statewide.

But...here's a teaser in early votes:

2014-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 8019

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	5432	67.7
DEM	1983	24.8
NP	604	7.5

2018-Gwinnett
Total Votes: 16538

Ballot	Votes	%
DEM	9281	56.1
GOP	6585	39.8
NP	672	4.1

[Adam Griffin]

Cobb only shifted 45 points to the Democrats compared to early voting 4 years ago, and not 60 points like Gwinnett - SAD!

2014-Cobb
Total Votes: 13373

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	10414	77.8
DEM	2905	21.7
NP	53	0.5

2018-Cobb
Total Votes: 16018

Ballot	Votes	%
GOP	8829	55.1
DEM	7081	44.2
NP	672	4.1

[Adam Griffin]

Comparing the two counties, it's looking like Gwinnett is producing a lot of first-time primary voters for the Democrats, while Cobb is generating a lot of crossovers from the GOP primary to the DEM primary. Look at those totals; Cobb's total only increased by about one-third (compared to Gwinnett's doubling) and yet Cobb has swung three-quarters as much as Gwinnett.

The raw GOP total still managed to increase in Gwinnett, but it has declined quite a bit in Cobb. Or it could just be disparate groupings in each county voting early versus voting on election day...

[Adam Griffin]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

[Adam Griffin]

If anybody is interested in comparing the % of ballots by county that were Democratic in 2010 and 2014, here is my nifty creation from a few years ago (just click on each county for figures):

Percentage Point Increase/Decrease in Share of Democratic Ballots Pulled by Electorate, 2010-2014

Note: the link above shows the results for all votes (EV & ED) and is a two-way model (excludes Non-Partisan ballots).

Note: the colors seen on that map are indicative of swing, and not indicative of which party had the most ballots cast in 2014.

To see the same map with each county shaded based on which party had more primary ballots cast in 2014, click here.

[Adam Griffin]

This is happening metro-wide:

Hall 2014: 89.1 R, 10.2 D
Hall 2018: 77.4 R, 21.3 D

Fayette 2014: 79.6 R, 20.1 D
Fayette 2018: 61.1 R, 38.4 D

Even in hostile counties (such as my own) outside the ATL media market, there's movement:

Whitfield 2014: 83.3 R, 14.9 D
Whitfield 2018: 77.1 R, 21.2 D

What’s happening in Forsyth and Cherokee counties?

Cherokee 2014: 91.7 R, 8.1 D (7349 votes)
Cherokee 2018: 82.7 R, 16.8 D (7849 votes)

Forsyth 2014: 90.2 R, 7.4 D (6813 votes)
Forsyth 2018: 78.2 R, 18.1 D (12182 votes)

[Adam Griffin]

So here are 15 relatively prominent counties (either by absolute population or relative population to their portions of the state) that I've already tabulated, with 2014 and 2018 margins, total raw vote for the two cycles and the swing in EV between the two cycles. These 15 counties comprise 51% of the state's 2010 population (likely closer to 55% today).

New fun fact: Savannah (Chatham County) apparently has the second-biggest swing of the bigger counties, behind Gwinnett and outpacing Cobb.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

[Adam Griffin]

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

Sure thing - I'm gonna finish up the southern metro later this evening, along with Augusta and Valdosta and maybe a couple of other counties.

[Adam Griffin]

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Calhoun	95	152	57.9%	42.1%	73.0%	33.6%	23.6
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Fannin	1329	1568	8.1%	91.5%	12.2%	86.5%	9.1
Fayette	-----	-----	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	-----	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Hancock	933	712	96.1%	3.6%	95.8%	3.9%	0.6
Henry	4819	8390	26.1%	73.1%	50.5%	48.8%	48.7
Lowndes	3328	3139	32.7%	67.2%	34.8%	64.6%	4.7
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Newton	3267	3356	51.7%	47.3%	56.8%	40.9%	11.5
Quitman	235	192	67.7%	23.8%	52.6%	44.3%	35.6
Randolph	362	606	81.5%	18.5%	75.7%	21.3%	8.6
Richmond	7903	7467	71.0%	27.2%	67.0%	30.2%	7.0
Rockdale	3705	5317	51.3%	48.4%	56.6%	41.3%	12.4
Whitfield	-----	-----	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

If you have a chance can you do Henry? That’s a swing County with quite a few contested D primaries in districts where the R incumbents have had token or no opposition.

And also Newton County because I live there.

Thanks for the info!

Added

Could you do Quitman and Fannin counties? I want to see how Obama-Trump Georgia and the northern rural counties are behaving

Added

Can you do some counties that have a high black population?

5 blackest counties (measured by % pop) are now added: Hancock, Dougherty, Clayton, Calhoun & Randolph

[Adam Griffin]

I wonder why dems are underperforming 2014 in Richmond county. I understand the rural black counties as many black people have been moving out of them to a city / suburb, but why Richmond?

There's a decent amount of precedent in the three Fall Line urban counties (Muscogee, Bibb & Richmond) for significant under-performance in recent elections in various measurements. Whether it's lower turnout overall (which all 3 counties have this cycle in EV compared to four years ago; all 3 had fewer voters in 2014 than in 2010 despite only Bibb shrinking in pop) or a relatively large collapse in Democratic support in midterms compared to other urban clusters, Democrats have a hard time relying on votes in these counties to be there when needed most.

[Adam Griffin]

Alright, here are 40 45 counties, comprising close to three-quarters of the state's population. I'm stopping here, lol. If anybody else wants to help fill in the blanks, let me know and I can point you to the relevant spreadsheets/zip files.

Just for some additional info: Clinton won these combined jurisdictions by a little over 7 points in 2016 (Obama won by 2 in 2012); the approximate 2018 EV primary composition has Democrats up by 8, which means Democrats are meeting/exceeding presidential representation in a midterm primary. These combined jurisdictions were 54% White, 32% Black VAP in 2010.

The rest of the state is close to 75% white VAP, though, so there could be comparable off-sets in the remainder of the state.

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Baldwin	1522	1557	45.6%	52.4%	54.3%	44.6%	16.5
Bartow	1585	1834	12.4%	86.8%	21.0%	77.6%	17.8
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Bulloch	1823	2349	33.5%	64.7%	41.5%	57.4%	15.3
Calhoun	95	152	57.9%	42.1%	73.0%	33.6%	23.6
Catoosa	989	1548	11.6%	88.1%	20.6%	76.9%	20.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Chattooga	1073	684	50.0%	46.1%	36.0%	62.8%	30.7
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Columbia	2938	6098	13.4%	86.4%	19.6%	78.9%	13.7
Coweta	2203	3552	22.7%	77.0%	30.6%	68.6%	16.3
Dade	602	686	15.9%	84.1%	9.7%	89.9%	12.0
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Douglas	3327	3770	34.1%	65.6%	52.2%	47.3%	36.4
Elbert	623	1241	27.3%	71.3%	24.8%	74.2%	5.4
Fannin	1329	1568	8.1%	91.5%	12.2%	86.5%	9.1
Fayette	-----	5283	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Floyd	1793	2762	23.3%	76.4%	27.7%	68.9%	11.9
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Glynn	3899	3669	17.7%	81.7%	30.7%	68.2%	26.5
Gordon	931	1240	13.4%	86.1%	19.0%	80.9%	10.8
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	4442	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Hancock	933	712	96.1%	3.6%	95.8%	3.9%	0.6
Henry	4819	8390	26.1%	73.1%	50.5%	48.8%	48.7
Houston	3843	4347	32.2%	64.9%	41.9%	57.1%	17.5
Laurens	1251	1882	42.2%	57.5%	38.4%	59.8%	6.1
Lowndes	3328	3139	32.7%	67.2%	34.8%	64.6%	4.7
Murray	801	531	27.1%	71.8%	15.1%	84.7%	24.9
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Newton	3267	3356	51.7%	47.3%	56.8%	40.9%	11.5
Paulding	3506	5653	13.7%	85.4%	19.1%	79.6%	11.2
Quitman	235	192	67.7%	23.8%	52.6%	44.3%	35.6
Rabun	1617	2320	16.0%	83.1%	15.1%	84.8%	2.6
Randolph	362	606	81.5%	18.5%	75.7%	21.3%	8.6
Richmond	7903	7467	71.0%	27.2%	67.0%	30.2%	7.0
Rockdale	3705	5317	51.3%	48.4%	56.6%	41.3%	12.4
Tift	1765	1540	16.7%	82.8%	25.5%	74.4%	17.2
Walker	1341	826	11.2%	88.7%	17.7%	81.5%	13.7
Whitfield	-----	1259	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

[Adam Griffin]

What on earth is with Quitman County's massive swing? Not too worrying since it's not a large amount of votes at all, but it sticks out like a sore thumb.

A lot of counties in SW Georgia are losing population rapidly, and losing black population to urban areas more so. Quitman's been teetering for awhile now:

2008: 53.5 D
2010: 55.8 D
2012: 54.3 D
2014: 52.1 D
2016: 55.1 R


In other sad news, the last great local Democratic bastion of rural North Georgia has truly, finally fallen :

Chattooga 2014: 50.0 D, 46.1 R
Chattooga 2018: 62.8 R, 36.0 D

I'm betting most if not all of the local elected Democrats (which comprise a majority of the elected officials) get wiped out this year.

[Adam Griffin]

Went ahead and filled 5 more counties in my corner of the state in (NW Georgia) on the previous page; definitely a mixed bag. The old Democratic bastions (at least at the local level) have finally went kaput, and you can see that in the primary results (Chattooga and Murray) in particular. NW Georgia was an area that swung to Carter in 2014 by more than any other white rural area in the state, so I figured it'd be interesting to see what is happening here.