Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

My presidential county-by-county GIF has been updated with 2016 (one slow and one fast)!

 

[Adam Griffin]

So, Democrats win Atlanta area (more and more) and sort of Black Belt going from south-west part of the state to central-east. Plus Savannah. And almost nothing more?

Not to mention that the Black Belt is increasingly becoming weaker and weaker. It almost vanished (or did, in many places) in the center of the state in this election.

See my animated mega-GIF for 2002-2016 presidential/gubernatorial results by precinct.

[Adam Griffin]

Well of course Thurbert Baker and Jim Thurmond would show that's not the case, but they had become entrenched in their positions, I will grant you.

Abrams is a fine candidate but has encountered criticism for forging deals with the Republcian leadership in the General Assembly. Personally, I can't fault her for being willing to negotiate to save the HOPE scholarship from being totally eviscersted as was the original Republican plan several years ago.

Jason Carter is almost certainly not going to run now that Representative Stacey Evans is considering a bid.

Were not both Baker's and  Thurmond's successes pre-2010? If so, they are (sadly) almost irrelevant now. Voter's polarization by race is substantially higher now then before, and in most cases Democrats can only dream about resurracting old "Blacks+moderate whites" coalition of 1990th-2000th...

Oh I'm simply pointing out that black Democrats have won statewide offices in Georgia many times. The 2010 election was quite devastating for the state Democrats as they held many of the statewide offices below the Governor with incumbents who were in for years and either retired or in Baker and Thurmond's case both ran unsuccessfully for a promotion. The electoral shifts have obviously been the main factor but incumbency would have, in my opinion, at least placed the Democrats at even odds for those races in 2010.

It's worth noting that one of those two (I forget which; I think Baker) was appointed to his position mid-term by the Governor, and already enjoyed the power of incumbency the first time he was elected. Both were also first elected during a time where you had a) a solid majority of voters guaranteed to vote Democratic in statewide elections and b) less media/publicity surrounding lower-key statewide elections that would've even made a candidate's race obvious to most voters. Those are the only two black candidates elected to statewide office in GA to my knowledge (unless I'm missing a prior PSC seat or something).


Also, fun fact: depending on whether you count the three incumbent Democrats in office beginning with the 2002 elections in Georgia (Thurbert Baker, Mike Thurmond and Tommy Irvin), the average black Democratic statewide candidate for office's vote share has been 3-4 percentage points lower than the average white Democratic statewide candidate for office's. That's share of the vote: not margin (the latter would be a 6-8 point underperformance). Something like 41-42% versus 45% if I recall correctly.

It's a legitimate concern from a strategic/electoral standpoint, and a black statewide nominee would almost ensure defeat in 2018 if recent trends hold.

[Adam Griffin]

Also, I'm not entirely convinced that Carter won't run, but that'll probably hinge more on whether Reed and Evans jump in than it will on Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

[Adam Griffin]

How come Stacey Abrams can't win statewide?

"Black, ATL, female", in that order.

They've elected Karen Handel to a statewide position or are we specifically talking about the position of Georgia's Governor?

GA has never had an elected female federal office holder to my knowledge, and only two statewide officeholders (Handel and Cox, I think). It stands out quite clearly, even against other Deep South states.

Being female - whether it's a liability in the primary (on both sides) or the general in Georgia is pretty clear...especially in the rural areas.

[Adam Griffin]

This flew understandably under the radar to the congressional race, but tomorrow is the runoff for the 32nd Georgia Senate district. This is actually inside of the Ga-6 and was estimated to have switched from a ten point Romney margin to a twenty point Clinton win in 2016. Still, the combined Republican vote was about 66% in April, and a lot of voters didn't realize this would be on a separate date from the congressional runoff.

I believe your numbers are a bit off there. Trump won SD32 by 13 and the April 18 R/D combined votes were 60/40.

It's a very uphill district, but I have a good feeling Triebsch will overperform due to her campaign's efforts. My county party up here actually helped fill out a couple thousand postcards for her a couple of weeks ago!

[Adam Griffin]

The Battle of the Staceys commences: Stacey Evans announces her bid for Governor.

[Adam Griffin]

As much as it sucks, you do have to look at Democratic primaries through the lens of white/black constituencies and electorates in GA, as there is still considerable racial polarization (and not necessarily that much less than among the electorate at-large, though it obviously manifests differently). With Evans jumping in, it's very likely that there are no other white legislative Democrats planning to run, and it wouldn't surprise me if there had been conversations among the group prior to Evan's announcement.

There are only 4 white Democrats in the Senate (Nan Orrock, Curt Thompson, Steve Henson and Elena Parent) and about a dozen in the House; in a situation where somebody as influential as Abrams is running, more than one credible white Democratic primary candidate running would all but guarantee her the nomination given the demographic breakdown of the primary electorate (sans a very large, fractured field with multiple black candidates and/or a white candidate with Carter/Nunn-like status). Even if it were a case of "Generic Black Democrat" instead of Abrams, having 2 credible white challengers versus 1 credible black challenger would likely produce the same result. Depending on enthusiasm and turnout, GA's 2018 primary electorate could be anywhere from 45-60% black & 30-45% white.

Henson, Thompson and Scott Holcomb in the House would be the most likely to a) run out of the group of white Democrats and b) be legitimate entities, with Holcomb arguably having the best shot. Maybe Spencer Frye and Elena Parent would be as well, but to my knowledge, neither has been posturing in recent years for a gubernatorial bid. I'm pretty sure Holcomb and Evans are close, so if she's announced and there hasn't been a peep out of him about running, that pretty much rules him out. Henson is minority leader in the Senate, so he's almost certainly not going anywhere, either.

I wouldn't necessarily bet against somebody else from the black legislative caucus or just a credible black challenger in general announcing, though. I've never been submerged in Gold Dome politics but from occasional comments and stories I've heard, Abrams might not necessarily be a consensus candidate for black legislative Dems by default.

[Adam Griffin]

So I got to wondering, what might a primary map look like in a 50/50 scenario between these two candidates? Here is my best guess at it:

Red = Evans
Blue = Abrams
(no value statement being made by color scheme)



Northwest Georgia (5% of primary vote)

Almost insignificant in a Democratic primary, we wouldn't expect more than 1 in 20 voters to be from this corner of the state. However, NW GA's influence could be disproportionate in an Evans-Abrams match-up, given that Evans was born and raised in Ringgold. When factoring in a combination of Georgia's racial polarization + hometown effect, it's not difficult seeing Evans winning 3:1 here, earning herself 2-3 points in terms of statewide margin over Abrams from here alone.

Northeast Georgia (8% of primary vote)

While significantly more populated than NW GA, part of NE GA's influence in a Democratic primary will be nerfed by the reality that it is even more Republican. This part of the state includes the sparsely populated but heavily-white counties in the far north, along with (less so but still) substantially white exurban/suburban counties in the northern metro. The same racial polarization effects as seen in NW GA will be on display here, but a lack of hometown effect and (somewhat) less hostility toward "Atlanta"/more familiarity with Abrams in the southern portions of the region would mute Evan's totals by a bit. Evans carries this region by 2:1.

No Man's Land (5% of primary vote)

I call this No Man's Land in part because this area of Georgia is pretty devoid of its own cultural or regional distinctions, comprising the east-west strip of Georgia that is south of the ATL metro and north of the Fall Line (Columbus-Augusta-Macon). While certainly a bit more diverse than North Georgia, it is still a predominantly white area, substantially conservative and sparsely populated. With that being said, black voters will still be the largest voting bloc in this area. Evans would need to pull out a slight win here (55-45) or keep it as even as possible in order to avoid falling behind statewide, perhaps by tapping into the concerns of rural black voters and leveraging the anti-Atlanta attitudes that cross racial boundaries to some extent.

South Georgia (18% of primary vote)

If the nationalization of local elections continues, then South Georgia may not be as competitive - or as large a share of the electorate - as it is shown here. Historically, a much greater number of whites participate in local/state Democratic primaries here than vote for Democrats for federal/statewide office, due to those elections being the de-facto elections for countywide offices. In the past two midterms, however, we've seen a dramatic shift in a number of counties in terms of the percentage of primary ballots being pulled that are Democratic, likely indicating a white exodus from the primary as the local GOP machines increase in power. If a continuation of that trend occurs in 2018, then this region may be an Abrams rout - if these trends stabilize and/or reverse, however, it could be very close or even potentially a win for Evans.

Satellite Counties (10% of primary vote)

The five "satellite counties" in Georgia - in which the cities of Athens, Augusta, Columbus, Macon and Savannah are found - should be an easy win for Abrams as a whole, but margins matter. She winds up carrying Muscogee (Columbus), Bibb (Macon) and Richmond (Augusta) by 30 points or more. Chatham (Savannah) likely ends up being much closer and Evans handily carries Clarke (Athens), keeping Abram's overall margin in this grouping down to 60/40.

Suburban Atlanta (25% of primary vote)

Easily the fastest growing area in raw numbers, it remains to be seen what exact percentage of the electorate will be from Suburban Atlanta: this largely depends on whether 2016 swings were a one-off or not. Nevertheless, around 25% of the electorate, give or take a few points, should be from here. In addition, this could also affect the racial composition, which we might expect to be approximately half black, half non-black.

We'd expect Evans to easily carry Cobb (the county she represents), as well as Paulding, Carroll, Coweta, Fayette, Walton and Barrow counties; Abrams would likely carry Douglas, Henry, Rockdale, Newton and Spalding. Gwinnett, likely comparable in size to Cobb in terms of primary electorate, could go either way.

In the end, a tied map statewide would likely see this region roughly tied as well.

The Core (30% of primary vote)

Easily a plurality of the electorate, the tri-county cluster of Fulton, Dekalb and Cobb should be close to one out of three votes on Election Day. We'd expect this to be Abrams' strongest area, both because it is her home turf and because of the sheer number of black primary voters (likely 70% of voters). Despite its image as a haven of progressive white voters, we'd expect quasi-bloc voting among whites in favor of Evans (which is quite common in local primaries).

If black turnout is slightly down compared to the Obama years and Evans makes a small amount of inward roads with black voters, holding this area to 60/40 in favor of Abrams becomes a possibility - if it goes much more in favor of Abrams than that, then it's very unlikely that there is any feasible pathway for Evans to grab the nomination via the remainder of the state.

[Adam Griffin]

Cagle's team is gonna have to step it up: I'm not sure whether their system thinks my first name is Guns or if they have people broken down by issue and it's somehow got associated with the names in their lists, but I keep getting emails from them like this:



The reason I'm on his list is because I answered one of their loaded questionnaires way back when, and I'm sure I didn't put my name in as "Guns McGee" or whatever. The more I think about it, it might have been around the time that campus carry was being debated and he was "surveying" people about that (either that or RFRA).

[Adam Griffin]

Just in case it hadn't been said yet, Carter is out (as is Reed):

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/05/31/georgia-2018-why-jason-carter-isnt-running-for-governor/

[Adam Griffin]

Abrams endorsed by Emily's List.

BTW, why? AFAIK - Evans is pro-choice too...

Remember when Sanders referred to various pro-choice Democratic groups as being "part of the [Democratic] establishment", and attacked Emily's List specifically because of some perceived endorsement mischief?

His sentiment was basically pointing out that they're a very pro-establishment group. The back-and-forth flow of staff between various Democratic orgs (DNC, DCCC, DSCC, etc) and Emily's List is akin to people bouncing back and forth between Washington and Goldman Sachs. Considering that Abrams has much more of a national Democratic profile than Evans, she was by default going to be the choice for them.

[Adam Griffin]

Will Jon Ossoff run for something statewide in 2018 or is he basically done? He is very young and charismatic He could still give it another run. Maybe LG or something else down ballot?

He could run for State Treasurer. He has a MS from the London School of Economics.

We don't have such an office: statewide, it's Gov; Lt Gov; AG; State School Superintendent; Secretaries of State, Labor, Agriculture and Insurance; and the Public Service Commission seats.

[Adam Griffin]

Cagle raised $2.7 million in the last two months of Q2.

[Adam Griffin]

JAHN BARRA is running for Secretary of State! I can already see the campaign ads:

"I'm Jahn Barra and long before I was born, my granddaddy used this lil' Smith and Wesson here to help stahp a literacy test"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/09/25/barrow-aims-for-a-political-comeback-with-bid-for-georgia-statewide-office/

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Georgia Democrats may pick up three seats in the General Assembly tonight.

In Senate District 6 - which was a nailbiter in 2016 (52-48 in favor of GOP), it looks like there might be a Dem-versus-Dem runoff. As of now, Democrats have around 63% of the vote across 3 candidates (!!!). Assuming this holds, this will eliminate the GOP supermajority in the Senate (their House supermajority fell a couple of years ago).



House Democrats appear to also be in range of picking up the two auxiliary Athens districts (117 & 119). Trump only managed to win one of these districts (forget which) by like 3 points; not sure about the other one.



I'm not sure how much outstanding vote remains: I just got home and it's unclear from returns on SoS whether these are nearly complete results or not. State has already declared victory in two of these races (I believe the 2 House districts) but I'm still getting the lay of the land here.

[Adam Griffin]

Now that the new year and new mayor are here, wonder when both Reed and Bottoms formally endorse someone

I was pretty sure Bottoms endorsed Evans...? I recall it was in a weird kinda-sorta way (at the same time that Evans endorsed Bottoms), but I thought it happened nevertheless.

EDIT: looks like it was beforehand speculation; no endorsement made

I'm really interested in seeing who Reed will support. Honestly, I'm not sure about who Reed likes and dislikes between the 2 gubernatorial candidates; I know that most of the state party rank-and-file don't like Reed at all and the feeling is mutual. I would expect an Abrams endorsement unless they somehow stepped on each others' toes from their legislative days...we all know how spiteful a certain someone can be in terms of supporting/opposing Democratic candidates.

[Adam Griffin]

HD-111 should fall in either 2018/2020: arguably, it should have fallen by now (there were low-single digit margins in both 2014 & 2016 IIRC).


Anyway, the problem with tonight's special elections is this area in general (SE Metro; Newton, Rockdale, Henry) suffers from a major demographic discrepancy. If y'all remember, SD 23 (I think?) was up in a special a couple of years ago and the Republican candidate managed to win by 2 points in a majority-black district that Obama carried by like 50 points.

Basically, among those 65 and older, this area is still overwhelmingly white. Under 65 is majority-black. Guess who shows up to vote in special elections? Compounding that, the black growth itself in this area is substantially younger than the median black age in GA; lots of 20-45 year-olds. So in essence, the demographics that make these areas competitive or even strongly Democratic in normal election cycles completely collapse in special elections because young people don't vote in special elections, and among the young people here, they're the backbone of the party's performance.

[Adam Griffin]

To anybody who thinks Cagle would be "sane", you're mistaken. He may be the "establishment" choice by virtue of incumbency, but he is not going to be the most reasonable one in the primary if elected (that distinction will go to Kemp, who is pretending to be hard right for expediency).

I will say this, though...Cagle will be a lot weaker in a top-ticket contest than many people realize. Not to oversimplify it, but he is David Vitter 2.0 in wait.

Also, GA has open primaries so you can vote in whichever primary you prefer - but in the event of a primary run-off, you have to cast a ballot in the same party primary as you did in the primary general (no voting in DEM primary and GOP primary run-off, or vice-versa).

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

[Adam Griffin]

... the Bernie Sanders endorsed Vincent Fort is going to attack Stacey Abrams as a radical? lolk

It makes plenty of sense if you assume that Fort abruptly flipped from being a Clinton supporter to a Sanders supporter, all in the hopes that he would be the sole beneficiary of the well-organized Sanders organization in ATL and that it would launch him into the mayor's office the following year...oops.

But yes, as has already been implied here, Abrams doesn't seem to have many friends from the state legislature (for whatever reason that may be).

[Adam Griffin]

Is the GA Dem primary electorate usually that black? 65% seems pretty high.

No! That point was perplexing to me as well. The 2016 Dem primary for president was only 51 percent black. The only state with a Democratic primary that black is Mississippi (even Alabama's was only 54 percent!).

I think 50-53 percent is more likely. Abrams' aggressive grassroots outreach to AA voters across all of the state and not just the Atlanta base may shift the make-up a bit, but not that dramatically.

They're definitely being optimistic. From what I've gathered, both Abrams' campaign and Abrams herself believe they are going to be able to remake the electorate in both primary and general contests; if you assume that is their guiding light, then a 65% black electorate makes sense (at least in terms of being compatible with their campaign goals).

Either that, or they have data that suggests a significant share of Dixiecrats who were still voting in the Democratic primary in 2014 for local/county races in South GA have either died/finally flipped. When you look at percentage of primary voters who pulled which party's ballots, even that year had a lot of Republicans in the electorate in the southern half of the state. Not a huge percentage statewide, but enough to potentially make a noticeable impact.

However, it's worth noting that blacks were about 60% of the electorate in the 2008 presidential primary; considering a huge number of white and/or Dixiecratic voters have disappeared since then, it may not be as unreasonable of a goal as it would seem.

Even if they succeed at increasing black turnout significantly, there's another problem: suburban ATL voters. I don't think anybody is under the impression that the huge swings in the metro in 2016 came from black voters. Since the election, suburbia has only soured on Trump even more. It's very possible that hordes of white and non-white, non-black voters pour into the Democratic primary for the first time, cancelling out (and maybe even then some) any gains in black voters.


All in all, I expect there to be a significant loss of white Democratic primary voters in the southern half of the state, an increase in black voters statewide, and a moderate-to-large increase of suburban voters who are switching from R-to-D in the metro. All of those factors are going to tug on one another and it could go in a number of directions, but I highly doubt the black share of the electorate will crack 60% statewide even under optimistic conditions.

[Adam Griffin]

Here's a little cheat-sheet for primary night, showing where votes for each party electorate generally reside. There are of course numerous ways you can hack and splice GA in such contests, but increasingly, population density and the presence of metro areas/lack thereof are key factors. It also helps to know that a candidate who wins a super-majority of counties in the state (in either party) on Election Night can still lose their primary - and quite resoundingly.

Any estimation what % of the Democratic electorate is Black in each of your regions?  Rural Georgia and Non-Atlanta Metro areas are probably dominated by Black Democrats, but I'm curious as to the Urban Atlanta and Exurban Atlanta regions.

Going off of memory here, the four regions in terms of 2016 vote were approximately:

ATL: 62-35 Clinton (+27)
Metro: 72-24 Trump (+48)
Suburbs: 49-48 Trump (+1)
Rural: 68-30 Trump (+38)

Based on DRA 2010 Census data (and doing my best to adjust based on growth), we get:

ATL: 58% Black, 31% White, 11% Other    
Metro: 58% White, 30% Black, 12% Other      
Suburbs: 61% Black, 31% White, 8% Other      
Rural: 57% Black, 37% White, 6% Other      

This would be in line with a 55% Black, 35% White, 10% Other statewide Democratic electorate...in a presidential year. Historically, midterms of course have been whiter so I think - under normal circumstances - we're on track for something like a 52/43/5 split.

Also, how would the %'s on your map change if the "core" Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton were a separate region?

For Democrats, essentially an even split: 30% of the Democratic electorate would be in the three core counties; an additional 30% would be in the remaining metro counties in maroon.

For the GOP, 10% and 20%, respectively.

[Adam Griffin]

It isn't shocking that there are more democrats than Republicans in Georgia. There have traditionally been more, and more Americans identify as Democrats in general.

Actually, over the past decade or so, Republicans have generally out-numbered Democrats by anywhere from 2-6 points in terms of self-identification, based on polls conducted by Pew and other organizations (we don't have partisan voter registration). Recently, the gap began to close pretty quickly.

For instance, Gallup showed a 3-point GOP advantage in 2010; in 2012, a 5-point GOP advantage.

Pew in 2014 showed a tie; Gallup showed a 4-point GOP lead the same year.

Gallup in 2016 showed the GOP with a 1-point lead.

Pew showing a lead for Democrats in this regard would likely be the first survey showing such since before 2008 at minimum.