Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Fantastic! Very few votes left in the part that's in Fulton.

Bennett's campaign was focused on opposing attemtps to undermine SSM. His victory gives some much needed voice to that effort.

The religious liberty laws, to be precise. It's odd to see a Democrat run on - and win - LGBT issues in a "conservative" Georgia House district and win. Of course, Brookhaven is 55% socially liberal and 45% economically conservative, so...

[Adam Griffin]

According to the AJC, it looks we would have avoided the supermajority even if Bennett had lost.  But it's still a sweet win--and hopefully, the start of a serious Democratic comeback in the years to come...

Technically the GOP was already one seat short but they could usually rely on Rusty Kidd (the only Independent in the General Assembly) to get them the exact number needed.  Now, that's assuming that the Democrats remained totally united in their opposition - something that cannot always be assured, naturally.

Interesting.  Is this the only GOP-leaning seat they would need to hold going forward to sustain a veto, or are there conservadems left in rural seats?  This could be particularly relevant come 2021 if you know what I mean.

I suppose if they didn't irritate Rusty Kidd in redistricting (who is usually either with them, or goes MIA come vote time on select issues like gun control when he's not with them), this would be the only seat they would need to override a veto. Technically, the House is now 118-61-1 with Bennett's victory.

There are very few white Democrats remaining at all outside of Atlanta, let alone conservative ones. There are only two white Democrats in the House remaining outside of metro Atlanta - one represents a pretty rural, half-white/half-black stretch of territory between Columbus and Atlanta that is safe for her, and the other represents a rural-to-urban black-majority area near Albany that is relatively safe. Both have a small conservative lean on some issues but the latter one doesn't have much of a track record (newly-elected in 2014).

There's really no one left who would be likely to buck based on the tendency of the district's voters - Bennett will be the only Democrat in either chamber representing a district that voted for Romney. On any given issue, however, you can find a few Democrats who will side with Republicans (a good example is school choice/charter school support from some black urban Ds).

[Adam Griffin]

This GIF is comparable to a static swing map, but instead of it being a simple swing map, it shows the election results for Governor between 2000-2014 & President between 2000-2012 in animated fashion. The changes in D & R % of the vote in each county is averaged out over a 4-year period and proportioned (as best possible) by frame/year. I know that the legend really can't be read, but you don't necessarily need it to appreciate the overall trends (lightest colors begin at 50% and each shade represents a 2-point range, with the last numbered shade being 86%).

Watch the gubernatorial frames from 2000-2002 jesus christ

[Adam Griffin]

Could Jason Carter/Michelle Nunn be a very strong ticket in 2018?

Personally, I think Jason Carter could be a lot stronger in 2018 (open seat) than he was this past time. I'm not sure what you mean by Michelle Nunn (Lt Gov?), since there isn't a Senate election in 2018 in GA. The fact that Carter did only 0.3 points worse than her against an incumbent when she was running for an open seat makes me think she is no better than mediocre. She really doesn't bring much to the table in terms of enthusiasm, passion or ideas: just her name. She definitely did nothing for turnout in 2014 and I would wager that she lost a substantial number of votes from both sides because everybody was afraid she'd end up being the opposite of them: nobody knew where she stood on anything, really. Hopefully, she won't be running again for anything.


Also, just for fun:

[Adam Griffin]

But the colors???

Anything that I make primarily not for Atlas features non-Atlas colors, sorry.


But I did finally complete this, going all the way back to 1990:

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Republicans are trying to court former Georgia football coach Mark Richt to run for Governor in 2018:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/georgia-republicans-courting-richt-governor/npZb2/

Poor Casey Cagle.

I guess Republicans are s[inks]ing their pants after seeing one cheating sleazeball taken down for a years-old affair.

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

I took my Gwinnett GIF back all the way to 2002.

[Adam Griffin]

Beautiful!

[Adam Griffin]

OK, I think I'm done now...though I may try to do Cobb (ugh) and who knows what might happen after that (after all, I've already done 1/6 of the precincts in the state), but voila:



And as always, a fun small & fast one alongside it:

[Adam Griffin]

Even though last year was a disappointment for me, ^that map in Ga is amazing.  Being able to match presidential results in a midterm is very good news for you guys in GA.

Yeah, it's pretty incredible - that's the first time that has happened in a while. In some of the counties we fell a bit short, but not by much. Of the ones in the GIF above:

2012 Pres -> 2014 Gov -> (Improving Party's Gain in Performance)

Fayette: Romney 64.83% -> Deal 61.76% ->(D +2.15)
Paulding: Romney 70.98% -> Deal 67.61% -> (D +1.83)
Henry: Romney 51.10% -> Carter 49.28% -> (D +1.41)
Douglas: Obama 51.36% -> Carter 51.33% -> (D +0.96)
Carroll: Romney 67.86% -> Deal 66.83% -> (D +0.82)*
Rockdale: Obama 57.72% -> Carter 58.05% (D+0.32)
Coweta: Romney 71.17% -> Deal 69.74% -> (D +0.07)
Newton: Obama 50.45% -> Carter 49.88% -> (R+0.29)*
Gwinnett: Romney 53.76% -> Deal 54.36% (R +0.7)
Clayton: Obama 84.67% -> Carter 82.70% -> (R+1.18)

*Both parties lost ground; advantage is calculated by substracting R performance loss from D performance loss or vice-versa

So yeah, the biggest drop in performance was in a D >80% county and it was only a little over a point when adjusted for Deal's performance drop as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Even though last year was a disappointment for me, ^that map in Ga is amazing.  Being able to match presidential results in a midterm is very good news for you guys in GA.

Yeah, it's pretty incredible - that's the first time that has happened in a while. In some of the counties we fell a bit short, but not by much. Of the ones in the GIF above:

2012 Pres -> 2014 Gov -> (Improving Party's Gain in Performance)

Fayette: Romney 64.83% -> Deal 61.76% ->(D +2.15)
Paulding: Romney 70.98% -> Deal 67.61% -> (D +1.83)
Henry: Romney 51.10% -> Carter 49.28% -> (D +1.41)
Douglas: Obama 51.36% -> Carter 51.33% -> (D +0.96)
Carroll: Romney 67.86% -> Deal 66.83% -> (D +0.82)*
Rockdale: Obama 57.72% -> Carter 58.05% (D+0.32)
Coweta: Romney 71.17% -> Deal 69.74% -> (D +0.07)
Newton: Obama 50.45% -> Carter 49.88% -> (R+0.29)*
Gwinnett: Romney 53.76% -> Deal 54.36% (R +0.7)
Clayton: Obama 84.67% -> Carter 82.70% -> (R+1.18)

*Both parties lost ground; advantage is calculated by substracting R performance loss from D performance loss or vice-versa

So yeah, the biggest drop in performance was in a D >80% county and it was only a little over a point when adjusted for Deal's performance drop as well.

In fact, if you average out the above as a region, then you're talking about a 0.4-point increase in the Democratic share of the vote between 2012 & 2014 (if I did my math correctly).

EDIT: Upon further inspection, I believe my initial estimate (1.4 points) was off due to faulty math, although who knows - maybe I was right the first time. I've updated it accordingly.

[Adam Griffin]

*sigh* I guess I'm just going to do the whole state sooner or later...

[Adam Griffin]

COBB COBB COBB

I've done 2004 & 2008 but damn it's a difficult one because of all the stupid non-contiguous and oddly-shaped precincts + boundary changes

[Adam Griffin]

Democrat Ed Tarver eyes a potential Senate bid

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Did you hear, guys!?! Another generic black candidate for statewide office is going to "excite the state's black electorate"!

[Adam Griffin]

Very interesting, assuming this includes 2008 (and isn't just a "record" for the online system)!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrat Ed Tarver eyes a potential Senate bid

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Did you hear, guys!?! Another generic black candidate for statewide office is going to "excite the state's black electorate"!

I don't see anything that would make this man a bad candidate?  If he can reach a bigger slice of suburban moderates on crime, all the better.  Nunn tried and failed to reach them on reproductive health/women's issues.  I think it's better to keep trying different messages until something sticks.  Remember, it was the moderate Webb and Warner who first broke through the statewide office wall in VA.

I don't recall Nunn touching anything regarding women's issues or reproduction with a ten-foot pole...? It certainly wasn't a cornerstone of her campaign; she basically tried to say nothing in a whole lot of words.

I'm not saying the guy would be an inherently bad candidate, but consider the following:

• Nobody knows who he is; no name recognition
• He's a black man who was appointed by President Obama to work in Holder's Justice Department

Consider the last opponent against Isakson. Mike Thurmond was one of three remaining statewide elected Democrats after 2006 (funny enough, 2 of the 3 were black). He was well-respected, well-liked and considered a very formidable opponent. He probably would have won re-election as Labor Commissioner (along with the other two). In the end, he didn't break 40% of the vote and got well under 20% of the white vote.

My main criticism in the initial post was the media (and the party, presumably) always thinking that literally any black person will "excite the state's black electorate" based solely on the color of their skin. There have been plenty of black non-Obama candidates for state and federal office in recent Georgia history, and almost every one of them a) underperform white candidates' statewide margins, b) receive the same 90% of the black vote that any non-Obama Democratic candidate in Georgia does and c) don't inspire increased turnout.

With regards to those last two: they're connected. If black turnout was actually increasing as the result of more black people being excited about black candidates, then the black share of the vote for those candidates (or any Democratic candidate, for that matter) would increase above 90%, yet it doesn't.

[Adam Griffin]

Party-backed Georgia Democrat qualifies for U.S. Senate seat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Still Likely Safe R tbh

There's less than zero chance that this guy will get 50%+ on election day - even if Clinton wins GA against Trump. And he'd lose in a runoff, too (even though Black turnout would not be down!). Isakson is a Republican incumbent who is relatively popular and knows how to run a strong campaign.

While Isakson is a popular incumbent, he has never had to run a real campaign in a competitive election. It helped him that in both cases, he faced black candidates. Denise Majette was a joke candidate who nobody really knew. While Michael Thurmond was re-elected statewide as a black Democrat in 2006, he had a terribly weak campaign for Senate in 2010. Isakson's performance in both contests have been inflated as a result. However, the end result of him winning re-election is practically guaranteed.

[Adam Griffin]

PRIMARY TIME

Currently, Isakson is leading with 81% in his primary

Barksdale barely has a majority, 50%, against a no-name challenger Cheryl Copeland, who has 43%

[Adam Griffin]

I've been working on my precinct-by-precinct map of Georgia from 2002-2014 again. I've filled in practically all of North Georgia, save for Cobb County in the midterms and Fulton/Dekalb for 2002, 2010 & 2014. Each one of these three counties for each frame easily takes an hour of time, so...it might be awhile before I have a consistent GIF for the results. The years with the counties incomplete sort of distract from the reddening of the metro, but I'll get it sooner or later.

Full-size GIF

[Adam Griffin]

I checked Gwinnett's voter rolls last month and based on the numbers I saw then, it was still something like 55-56% white in real terms...? They're not counting the "Other/Unknown" categories (I did), a substantial portion of which is actually white due to the recent abolition of the requirement to mark race on the form. At any rate, glorious news!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

It was quite shocking when I looked at pew research and found Virginia to be 10% southern baptist, compared to 25% for Alabama. Especially when you look at this map

Is that all Baptists, or just white evangelical Baptists? Throughout most of the South, this can make a big difference.

This report from Pew says that VA is 15% Baptist as far as what would be the likely definition of SBA; white evangelicals. Another 11% are black Baptists or Baptists who fall into neither category, for a total of 26% Baptist.

By the same measurement, GA is 34% Baptist; NC 31%; SC 34%. Even if you just at whites, it's 15% in VA and 21%, 20% and 22%, respectively. Not a huge difference there. I don't think using a Baptist litmus test is an ideal way to measure it.

[Adam Griffin]

Must be preparing for another run - very high-energy!