CNN's Mark Preston admits tilting poll to include more R's.

[Adam Griffin]

What did he say, verbatim?

Here's what was published by CNN:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The fact that Ryan only won a +4 plurality in a R+2 sample (and not to get into crosstabs too much here) means he is a big loser.

[Adam Griffin]

What did he say, verbatim?

Here's what was published by CNN:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The fact that Ryan only won a +4 plurality in a R+2 sample (and not to get into crosstabs too much here) means he is a big loser.

You apparently can't do math. If you readjusted to D+3 it would be a tie. Tie doesn't equal loser.

Exactly. Democrats under-perform Republicans when given two equally polarized scenarios (i.e: R+2 & D+2). It was a statistical tie with a R+2 sample, when Ryan should have been outside the MoE in a sample such as this - had he held his own or actually won the debate. Therefore, Ryan is a big loser.

[Adam Griffin]

Exactly. Democrats under-perform Republicans when given two equally polarized scenarios (i.e: R+2 & D+2). It was a statistical tie with a R+2 sample, when Ryan should have been outside the MoE in a sample such as this - had he held his own or actually won the debate. Therefore, Ryan is a big loser.

That is some of the dumbest logic I've ever heard. After you make the sample change it comes almost to a dead even tie. MOE doesn't become higher for Obama and lower Ryan in the process(which is essentially what you're saying even you don't realize it).

Take a damn statistics course.

This wasn't a "Who would you vote for?" poll, it was a "Who won the debate?" poll. It also wasn't a "What could have been if we adjust sampling after the fact" poll, it was a "What actually happened" poll. In any favorable Republican sample and assuming the two candidates perform equally well, Ryan should have won it outright - without splitting hairs or worrying about MoE. There is simply more soft support among Democrats than Republicans; a skilled Republican candidate will persuade more leaning Democrats to their side than the other way around.

Ryan held the easy ground he was guaranteed to hold given the sample. He didn't gain an inch otherwise, and in every other poll, 30-50% of Republicans conceded that he lost the debate. He didn't convince anyone else that he won. It was Ryan's debate to win or lose, much like it was Romney's debate to win or lose last week. Romney was considered the winner among 55-70% of voters. Ryan was considered the winner among 18-48% of voters. Therefore, Ryan is a big loser for failing to convince anyone outside of his realm of influence that he won the debate.

[Adam Griffin]

First of all, stop acting as if you have all the answers or that polling is a concrete science. If that were the case, then every poll would show the same result and there would be no error. The MoE was 5 points in this poll, which is a god-awful large one.

If you insist on discussing the what-ifs, then Biden and Ryan were statistically tied in a poll that was a net 5 points more Republican than it should have been (D+3 is, in my opinion, the most accurate reflection of current partisan breakdown). If you want to claim that your opinions are anything but opinions, then you should know that when in the MoE, there is no victor. It is tied. The result was a tie in a highly favorable Republican sample. What would you be saying if there had been a statistical tie in a D+8 sample? Maybe something to the effect of, "Biden is a big loser"?

And yes, CBS and ABC polls are the others I was referencing.