Bush won in 2004 because he dramatically increased turnout among his base relative to 2000. Obama is not going to get better turnout than 2008. Only a delusional Democrat would suggest such nonsense.
Are you seriously trying to compare Bush's 2000 turnout with Obama's 2008 turnout? Furthermore, are you attempting to say that if Obama's 2012 turnout drops by any amount, that he will lose? If so, it absolutely makes no sense. Bush had to increase turnout because otherwise, he would have lost. Obama doesn't have to do that. Remember how one lost the PV and the other won it by seven points?