This isn't a bad forecast for Georgia when you take into account some of the changing factors. According to this poll, Obama's lost about 5-6% of his white support since 2008, but the overall effect of the white electorate has waned by that much at least since 2008 due to an aging white Republican voting bloc that is quickly being replaced by a younger, more progressive and more ethnically diverse electorate.
I've consistently said that Obama's floor in Georgia in 2012 is 46% assuming that there isn't a complete collapse of AA turnout here in 2012. That's against Romney. If the nominee is Newt, I'd expect that floor to move up, even with it being Newt's "home state". He'll get as big of a home state advantage here as Al Gore got in TN in 2000.
