OH-2 Special Election Coverage and Prediction thread...

[nini2287]

I think the race will either be a surprise close Hackett upset or a relatively comfortable (56-44 or so) win for Schmidt.

[nini2287]

Where are you getting the results from, Nick?

[nini2287]

Brown County Results

PRECINCTS COUNTED (OF 35) .  .  .  .  .        35  100.00
REGISTERED VOTERS - TOTAL .  .  .  .  .    29,220
BALLOTS CAST - TOTAL.  .  .  .  .  .  .       460
VOTER TURNOUT - TOTAL  .  .  .  .  .  .              1.57

Representative to Congress
(Vote For Not More Than )  1
(WITH 35 OF 35 PRECINCTS COUNTED)
 PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       242   52.95
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       213   46.61
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2     .44
 Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .       457
Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         1
Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2

Good sign so far as Portman won Brown county by the same margin in 2004 that he won the general election (although this election had 18,500 less votes cast)

[nini2287]

The Brown results are absentee only for now

Ah, good thinking.

[nini2287]

Election Results
Last Updated: 8/02/2005 8:30pm
Note: You must refresh this page for updated results by clicking the reload button on your browser.

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
56 precincts of 753 reporting
   PAUL HACKETT    6,562    51%    
   JEAN SCHMIDT    6,276    49%

[nini2287]

Which part of the district are Hackett and Schmidt from?  See if there are any regional advantages in there.

[nini2287]

I love how Philip and Jake make an appearance in this thread only after they're assured Schmidt is going to pull it out.

Then they say no big deal about a 1% win in a district that usually goes for Republicans by around 30%-40%.

Hackett was an excellent candidate, but a win for Schmidt is a win regardless of whether it's 52-53% it looks Schmidt will get or the 72% Portman received in 2004.

[nini2287]

Well, to answer the big question of the night:

HARLAN TWP FIRE LEVY
4 precincts of 4 reporting
   FOR    674    77%    (W)
   AGAINST    198    23%    

[nini2287]

And so it shows absolutely no change in their ideology whatsoever, and says absolutely nothing about the ability of Democrats to compete in this district with a normal candidate in the future.

What bullsh*t.  Any Republican should win this district by 20%+ at worst.

You're telling me a 1% loss means nothing? Keep drinking the Kool-Aid.

This one will probably be more than 1% as the only results yet to come in are from Schmidt's second best county (so far).  And yes I'd rather one Congressoinal race and lose all 434 others in blowouts, than have each of the 435 districts be a 51-49 loss.

[nini2287]

If any Democrat could win in OH-2, it was Paul Hackett, August 2005.

Well he lost. This means Democrats simply CANNOT win in this district. Zell Miller is right. Bloomberg can win in New York, Romney can win in Massachusetts, but no Dem can win in OH-2. This is not a national party.

Well, Democrats are governors in places like Wyoming and Montana and what not. The correct comparison would have been if a Republican made a real race for a Harlem cogressional seat.  Both parties are (non-)national in the same way.

Good point.  I also feel if Hackett had run against Portman in 2004, Portman would still have won around 60-40

[nini2287]

Good point.  I also feel if Hackett had run against Portman in 2004, Portman would still have won around 60-40

You really are a self-hating Democrat, huh?

I'm just honest.  Portman is a much, much stronger candidate than Schmidt.

[nini2287]

If you think this election was close because a lot of people in that district now think Bush is an SOB or chickenhawk, you're a little, shall we say, 'kooky.'

What the hell is a chickenhawk anyway?

[nini2287]

I wish I could stay up all night...and where could I get the results?

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html

Or you could just poke around this thread.