What would be the most crushing event that could happen to Bush would be a corruption crisis or a scandal.
If suddenly it were to come to like that Bush was having an affair, had fathered children out of wedlock, or was a pedophile he certainly would be sunk.
If Dick Cheney were to suddenly die of a heart attack and Bush were to select a contraversial figure (such as Helms or Santorum) he could be sunk.
If a Nixon-esque scandal were to come to light it could sink him.
But in terms of foreign policy ... it would require a real disaster or a major blunder.
I have said this before, but I think most foreign policy events would probably help Bush, b/c Dean and many other Democrats lack credibility on foreign policy and national security. With Clark being the exception, of course. I think the only way such an event could harm Bush is that it might knock out Dean, or if ti was revealed that the White House messed up and caused a terrorist attack.
