What are you laughing at? Are you saying that national swings don't apply to Pennsylvania for some reason?
I find it laughable when everyone applies this "Well, this state was +3 for the Dems compared to national numbers so it would easily go +10 for the Dems in 2008!"
Barack Obama is not going to beat John McCain by seven points nationally. End.
And maybe you're still not understanding, Mr. "Kansas goes Obama." The point is that it's not always as easy as "Well, state X is automatically +3 for the Dems."
It's not always as easy as saying that, right, but Pennsylvania, despite some Republican delusions, is not swinging away from the Democrats by such a great margin that it would be close if Obama won nationally by 5 points. Pennsylvania is a state with a Democratic tilt to it, and the only way McCain can overcome that is by winning the popular vote significantly. If Obama wins nationally significantly, then Pennsylvania will be called early and easily for him, in the same way that a state like Arkansas or South Carolina would be called early and easily for McCain if he won by 5 points nationally.
Since you love national averages so much I'd like to point out that Arkansas was +7.3% for Bush in 2004 and South Carolina was +14.5%. PA on the other hand was +4.96% for Kerry. And pretty much everything indicates that all of these states are likely to be better compared to national average for McCain than they were for Bush (or at least not worse). If you want a state comparable to Pennsylvania it would be Missouri or Virginia. But all of those calculations should be treated with caution since they over-simplify quite a bit.
