MT-Mason-Dixon: Obama defeats Clinton easily

[Gustaf]

Montana is the fifth poorest state in the nation and is over 90% white. Clearly, Obama has a gigantic working class white problem that will doom him in the general.

Bringing Montana into single digits will sure go a long way to giving Obama the election. In fact, it may net him as many as...0 electoral votes.

But, hey, losing Michigan and Pennsylvania would only amount to 38 EVs lost (58 if you include Ohio as a lost opportunity) so the white working class problem is to be ignored, plain and simple.

[Gustaf]

Montana is the fifth poorest state in the nation and is over 90% white. Clearly, Obama has a gigantic working class white problem that will doom him in the general.

Bringing Montana into single digits will sure go a long way to giving Obama the election. In fact, it may net him as many as...0 electoral votes.

But, hey, losing Michigan and Pennsylvania would only amount to 38 EVs lost (58 if you include Ohio as a lost opportunity) so the white working class problem is to be ignored, plain and simple.

Obama is going to win Michigan by a larger margin than Kerry did.

Count on it.
He's strong where it matters. People are paying way to much attention to the fabled Macomb Reagen Democrats while not paying attention to Oakland County which Obama will win handily, easily negating Macomb

Actually, I'm paying attention to the polls that are consistently showing Michigan as extremely close.

Verily: Sure, but I doubt the black working class is the source of Obama's problems in MI.

[Gustaf]

I don't knowwhy this would be the case in Michigan, really. Look at the 2006 senate race, for instance. Looking at the Atlas database there were 41 polls conducted in the period from mid-January to early November. Stabenow led in everyone of those. There was also no obvious trending in any direction. Take out Strategic Vision and the last batch of polls were spot on. I see that the gubernatorial race was a good case for the theory that Obama will have an easy time, but again:

Gore won it by 6%. Kerry won it by 3%. Is it unreasonable to think that McCain could improve a couple of percent on that? I don't see why Michigan would be safe for Obama. And, in fact, going back to the 2004 presidential, in early June Kerry was getting 47% in 4 polls in a row. No late breaking undecideds there. In fact, only 4 out of 46 polls on the Atlas that year showed Kerry below 45%. So I can't say I'm very convinced.