Will Nader run? will it matter?

[Gustaf]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

[Gustaf]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

However, given the bias of the electoral college towards low population states, and that these states are Bush's electoral strength, it is no freak of nature that a minority PV president was elected in 2000, and could easily happen again in 2004.

As discussed elsewhere, Bush won with only 47.87% of the PV. If he gained even 0.82% of the total vote, it would offset the combined Gore/Nader 2000 margin in FL and, all else held constant, re-elect him, even though he would trail the Dems in the PV 50.3% to 48.7%

If, as frequently suggested here, FL has become more conservative, he could conceivably pull out a win with even less of the PV.

My point is that despite fact that the American system definitely makes it likely it tends not to happen. There has been a lot of really close elections throughout history, and only on 2 occasions have a candidate won with a minority of the votes (Harrison in 1888 and Bush in 2000), not counting 1876, since that was due to fraud, otherwise Tilden would've won.

[Gustaf]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

However, given the bias of the electoral college towards low population states, and that these states are Bush's electoral strength, it is no freak of nature that a minority PV president was elected in 2000, and could easily happen again in 2004.

As discussed elsewhere, Bush won with only 47.87% of the PV. If he gained even 0.82% of the total vote, it would offset the combined Gore/Nader 2000 margin in FL and, all else held constant, re-elect him, even though he would trail the Dems in the PV 50.3% to 48.7%

If, as frequently suggested here, FL has become more conservative, he could conceivably pull out a win with even less of the PV.

I'd say its not only conceivable, its fairly likely.  As you said the electoral situations favors it, and Florida has drifted right.  Polarization - ideological, regional, and cultural - makes bigger percentage wins for Kerry in Dem states likely while not necessarily greatly increasing Bush's percentage in Republican bastions.  Net result - if he can hold FL and OH, he wins with even less than 47.8%.

It often seems likely, but for some reason still seldom happens. I think it'll be the same this time, I doubt Bush will have the fluke of winning with 0.005% in a key state again...

[Gustaf]

Bush can win with a minority of the popular vote again even without Nader.

CAN, but probably won't, it seldom happens.

However, given the bias of the electoral college towards low population states, and that these states are Bush's electoral strength, it is no freak of nature that a minority PV president was elected in 2000, and could easily happen again in 2004.

As discussed elsewhere, Bush won with only 47.87% of the PV. If he gained even 0.82% of the total vote, it would offset the combined Gore/Nader 2000 margin in FL and, all else held constant, re-elect him, even though he would trail the Dems in the PV 50.3% to 48.7%

If, as frequently suggested here, FL has become more conservative, he could conceivably pull out a win with even less of the PV.

I'd say its not only conceivable, its fairly likely.  As you said the electoral situations favors it, and Florida has drifted right.  Polarization - ideological, regional, and cultural - makes bigger percentage wins for Kerry in Dem states likely while not necessarily greatly increasing Bush's percentage in Republican bastions.  Net result - if he can hold FL and OH, he wins with even less than 47.8%.

It often seems likely, but for some reason still seldom happens. I think it'll be the same this time, I doubt Bush will have the fluke of winning with 0.005% in a key state again...

Oh I agree that its unlikely any state will be quite as close as FL again, though we could have some like NM, IA, OR.  I just mean that the national popular vote percentage Bush gets may be lower and yet a win.

Yes, it could happen. But I somehow don't think it will, usually the EC gives a clear win for one side, and that side is usually the PV winner, if for nothing else, the fact that they get a media boost and the bandwagon effect.

[Gustaf]

The cultural divide is such that the red states seem solid red and the blue states solid blue.  It would take a really huge issue to move any of these states away from where their centers of gravity take them on social issues.  Only a handful of states are moveable from where they came down in 2000.

NH, Ohio, W Virginia on the Rep side might be in play.  I don't think Florida this time.

Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, with Oregon and Pa. outide possibilities from the other side.

That's it.  Bush is not going to crack California or Illinois and Kerry isn't going to take an Arkansas or Indiana.  The two sides are almost set in stone.

You never know...there can always be a surprise state. Overall, I agree though. But I think it depends on what strategy kerry chooses. If goes for the South-West I think AZ, NV and CO would be in play, or whatever. Bush would have the advantage, but I think these are possible pickups for the Dems. The other GOP states seem lost right now though.