Kerry and the media

[Gustaf]

Sorry ignored you questions there… well here is my response…

1.) Electability was an issue when Dean was the frontrunner in fact all the mainstream candidates hammered Dean as unelectable… while many in the media suggested that he would face a very difficult task in taking on President Bush… the electability issue was raised many times prior to Kerry doing his Lazerus Act.

2.) The national polls did receive a lot of press attention in early fall… there was a lot of press about polls which showed that both Clark and Kerry either beat or tied with Bush in a hypothetical match up but then it was Clark who was the candidate the press gave most attention to…while a little latter not long before Sadam’s capture polls where also released showing Kerry and Clark competitive against Bush…

3.) The importance of leading in national polls is that it is meant to demonstrate that that candidate has a breadth of support nation wide… but I take your point however a poll in every state would be complex and from the few that have trickled through over recent days Kerry has very healthy leads in Maryland and Washington two Democratic leaning states… but the importance is that it shows that the race will be close as “bellwether” states usually reflect national polls in terms of how divided voters are between the candidates… and historically candidates who win the popular vote generally win the electoral vote… Bush being an obvious exception… added to this its quite a story to see Bush’s poll number near there lowest since he came to power…but they will fluctuate right through to November IMHO…

Hope that helps…                      

That a candidate loses the PV and wins the EV has happened 3 times that I know of:

1876, Tilden (D)-Hayes (R), PV 51-48 to Tilden, EV 185-184 to Hayes (!). That was cheating though, so maybe it shouldn't count...

1888, Cleveland (D)-Harrison (R), PV 49-48 to Cleveland, EV 233-168 to Harrison.

And 2000, of course...

[Gustaf]

  Not knocking Dean here... supported the guy for a while... so not a dean basher here but he has been infuriating me recently with his transformation into little more than a vanity candidate...

Gustaf while there have been three occasions when the PV and EV have produced different victors generally they both produce the same candidate as the winner... and it was that they are generally a good guide as to who has the edge amongst the general electorate... that was what I was driving at...

I know, and i agree. In fact, I was gonna write that, but I had to go off right then, so I jsut finished off my little historical walkthrough and posted...

I was gonna get to the point that if the election is close the risk of PV and EV not matching is pretty good, but usually it doesn't happen.

There are a number of elections that I can think of straight away where the PV was very, very close and the winner there still won the EV:

1880, 1884, 1892, 1916, 1960, 1968, 1976 (not THAT close, but very close EV). This indicates that the PV winner usually wins, even if the election is really close. Oddly enough...