Schroeder quits as party leader

[Gustaf]

Good to see Schröder going, slimy guy. The CDU will definitely win the next election, and Angela Merkel has been compared to Thatcher. But I don't know how true a comparison that is...

[Gustaf]

Good to see Schröder going, slimy guy. The CDU will definitely win the next election, and Angela Merkel has been compared to Thatcher. But I don't know how true a comparison that is...

That comparison looks nothing but absurd to me.
Don't expect Clement to be going anywhere. Elections in Germany are won by mobilizing the base, not in the scarcely-existing center. We wouldn't vote for Clement.
This also explains the low standing in the opinion polls. The Social Democrats will rally behind Schroeder again when the election draws near and they take a closer look at the alternative.
There is also the non-small matter of the age structure of the CDU  voters. That party is effectively dying out.
They still may win in 2006 of course. But don't count on it until three days before polls close maximum.

Clement? That's the name of that new patry leader, right?

The last time Schröder managed to cling on by moving against the Iraq War. I don't think the Germans will buy him again, but if they do, it's their loss, imo. And if you try to excite the base, huge cuts in welfare might not be the way to go. And I don't think too much shold be read into age structure, there is always the tendency of people to grow more conservative when they get old.

[Gustaf]

Good to see Schröder going, slimy guy. The CDU will definitely win the next election, and Angela Merkel has been compared to Thatcher. But I don't know how true a comparison that is...

That comparison looks nothing but absurd to me.
Don't expect Clement to be going anywhere. Elections in Germany are won by mobilizing the base, not in the scarcely-existing center. We wouldn't vote for Clement.
This also explains the low standing in the opinion polls. The Social Democrats will rally behind Schroeder again when the election draws near and they take a closer look at the alternative.
There is also the non-small matter of the age structure of the CDU  voters. That party is effectively dying out.
They still may win in 2006 of course. But don't count on it until three days before polls close maximum.

Clement? That's the name of that new patry leader, right?

The last time Schröder managed to cling on by moving against the Iraq War. I don't think the Germans will buy him again, but if they do, it's their loss, imo. And if you try to excite the base, huge cuts in welfare might not be the way to go. And I don't think too much shold be read into age structure, there is always the tendency of people to grow more conservative when they get old.

Clement is the finance minister. The new party leader will be Franz Muentefering. Not that he'd win an Election either, he's just too boring.
The Gulf War issue was probably not decisive. That flood in East Germany probably helped more...
"if you try to excite the base, huge cuts in welfare might not be the way to go' - true, of course. That's the reason for the current dismal poll standing.
Age structure - have a look at the age structure of the German parties and think again. It's really extreme. And I mean EXTREME. Iran is probably the only country in the world where your age says more about how you vote.

OK, I'll admit to not having looked into it a lot. In our referendum on the euro, 71% of those aged 18-21 voted no, I thought that was a rather extreme age difference.

[Gustaf]

What is the CDU platform?  I tried their site, but there is no translation to Elglish.  Funny, I wish I would have got better grades in my German classes.

Germans dub everything, including the Simpsons and Nanny. Scary really. I think it's a major factor to lower level of English in many European countries. CDU is paternal conservatives, but I'll let Lewis do the details...

[Gustaf]

What is the CDU platform?  I tried their site, but there is no translation to Elglish.  Funny, I wish I would have got better grades in my German classes.

 CDU is paternal conservatives, but I'll let Lewis do the details...

I figured as much, but are they for or against the US on the Iraq issue?  Are they for lower or higher taxes, etc?

Lower taxes I am fairly sure. I don't know a lot about Iraq, but I THINK that they were sort of opposed to it.

[Gustaf]

While we´re at... asked about the possibility of coalitions between the CDU and the Greens on state level Michael Glos, leader of the CSU regional group within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, said today that he opposes coalitions with "eco-stalinists" and "former terrorists" like Fischer or Trittin (what the hell is a "eco-stalinist"?).

Like an eco-fascist, I guess...

[Gustaf]

Yeesssss... but it's still morally wrong...

What you mean, morally? This is Politics.
And do not be led to a wrong conclusion by that "Christian" in the name.

Hey, according to that test I took, if I were a European, I'd be a Christian Democrat, so I don't like what you are saying about my party.

I wouldn't want to be a Christian Democrat that much...just look at the Italian Christian Democrats...

[Gustaf]

The Christian Democrats of the 1st Republic were not really a party... more like a very, very, very big coalition of special interests... kind of like the LDP in Japan...

Or the Republicans...

[Gustaf]

The Christian Democrats of the 1st Republic were not really a party... more like a very, very, very big coalition of special interests... kind of like the LDP in Japan...

Or the Republicans...

Uhhh, acctually, that really describes the Democrats better.

I was just making a little joke, both American parties have a lot of special interest organisations behind them, though not as much as pre-1900 era, perhaps.

[Gustaf]

While we´re at... asked about the possibility of coalitions between the CDU and the Greens on state level Michael Glos, leader of the CSU regional group within the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, said today that he opposes coalitions with "eco-stalinists" and "former terrorists" like Fischer or Trittin (what the hell is an "eco-stalinist"?).

LOL, that's overreacting just a little. Didn't Kohl try similar (if not equally extreme) slurs against Schily and the Green Party in the 1998 election? I suppose it goes to show that negative campaigning doesn't always pay off.

Well, the "former terrorists" bit is part of CDU/FDP/CSU radical wing standard rhetoric. Glos always was a man for tough soundbites. Consider it part of his inofficial job description...Anyways it isn't a possibility because very few Greens would be ready to do that. Green/CDU coalitions on the local level (and there've been a few) have always caused collapses of the Green vote at the next poll.

The leader of the Swedish Center Party got murdered by the media for referring to Fischer as a former terrorist.

[Gustaf]

I can´t say much about Schily or Ströbele, but I think from the late 60ies until the mid-70ies Fischer was some sort of a left-wing extremist anarchist who opposed the "fascist police state" in West Germany as he saw it. But he was never a terrorist in the meaning of the word. He never blew things up or kidnapped/killed people or things like this.

I believe the major political turning point in his life was when a Air France plane was hijacked by a terrorist command in 1976 or so. And some of the terrorists involved in the hijacking were old "comrades" of Fischer. This event was so a major shock for Fischer that he broke with the violent left-wing movement and began to turn back to democracy.

I seem to remember a picture of him and some others kicking a policeman?

[Gustaf]

As I said, Street Fighting Man...
It's not as if more policemen got kicked by lefties than the other way round...

Well, I wasn't implying that either...

[Gustaf]

I seem to remember a picture of him and some others kicking a policeman?

Beating a policeman is neither appropriate nor legal, but it isn´t exactly something I would call "terrorism".

No, I wouldn't either, I was referring to the history of militant extremism of some members of the German left.