Bellwthers and anti-bellwethers?

[Gustaf]

I decided to start a thread for those who want to take a closer look at different states' voting records.

I will start off by asking the, probably futile question, is there an anti-bellwether? That would be a state with a tendency to go for the losing candidate, as opposed to a bellwether. I'm afraid there aren't.

I thought D.C. might be bad, since they always vote Dem regardless of the situation. But they were only wrong in 6 out of the 10 elections it participated in.

[Gustaf]

MN has voted the wrong way in 1968, 1980, 1984, 1988 and 2000. That's 5 out of the last 14.

MS voted the wrong way in 1948-1968 and also in 1992 and 1996, making it a total of 8 out of the last 14.

[Gustaf]

Being a bellwether is easier than being an 'anti-bellwether' because it is unlikely that a state would against the nation trend line more often then not.

Yeah, I kind of saw that myself...it would be cool though! I think I could find regional anti-states, states that have a tendency to vote aginast their region, like Kentucky in the South.

[Gustaf]

MA voted the wrong way in 1968, 1972, 1988, and 2000.  I guess that's not a good example, but MA was WAAAAY against the trend line in 1972 as it was the only state for McGovern.

Yeah, but they still voted for Reagan. Minnesota is slightly better, mostly b/c of Mondale.

[Gustaf]

MA voted the wrong way in 1968, 1972, 1988, and 2000.  I guess that's not a good example, but MA was WAAAAY against the trend line in 1972 as it was the only state for McGovern.

Yeah, but they still voted for Reagan. Minnesota is slightly better, mostly b/c of Mondale.

Minnesota went wron way in 1968, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2000.  So that's 5.

Yeah, I posted it above...

I just pointed out MA because it was the only McGovern state.

I agree that it gets extra points for that.

[Gustaf]

You get a number of states who were "anti-bellwethers" for a period of their history. In 1948-68 it's the Deep South.
In 1880-1908 it's Nevada

Year  National Winner Nevada Winner
1880 Republicans       Democrats
1884 Democrats         Republicans
1888 Republicans       Republicans
1892 Democrats         Populists
1896 Repubicans        Democrats
1900 Republicans       Democrats
1904 Republicans       Republicans
1908 Republicans       Democrats

I find that quite impressive. Since 1912, moreover, Nevada has been a great bellwether. The only time they got it wrong is 1976.

That's a great example, thanks!

[Gustaf]

Another way of determining Anti-Bellwethers is looking at two close elections won by different parties and check which states went against the trend both times around.
1960 - 1968 Maine, Washington
1968 - 1976 Maine, Connecticut, Michigan, Washington
1976 - 2000 (though that period is really somewhat too long) Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, California.
So the most anti-bellwether states of the last half century are obviously Maine and Washington, with Washington taking first place because it also went Democratic in 1988.
We can't really take this further because what was the last close election won by Republicans before 1960?
1948 Democrats
1916 Democrats
1892 Democrats
It's 1888. The 1876 to 1892 period could of course be analyzed in this fashion, but I think the only anti-bellwethers back then were Nevada (as pointed out above) and California.

Thanks again...the Maine and Wahsington examples are really interesting.

[Gustaf]

Vermont has only voted for the Democrats 4 times in it's history of the popular votes, those are for LBJ in 64, Clinton (x2) and Gore.....

Yeah, it went from strongly Rep to strongly Dem.

[Gustaf]

Another way of determining Anti-Bellwethers is looking at two close elections won by different parties and check which states went against the trend both times around.
1960 - 1968 Maine, Washington
1968 - 1976 Maine, Connecticut, Michigan, Washington
1976 - 2000 (though that period is really somewhat too long) Maine, Vermont, Connecticut, New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, New Mexico, Washington, Oregon, California.
So the most anti-bellwether states of the last half century are obviously Maine and Washington, with Washington taking first place because it also went Democratic in 1988.

I'd also add any state that (in the 1960-2000 period), voted against a Dem winner and against a GOP winner:

Miss.--(1960), 1964, (1968), 1992, 1996
Ala.--(1960), 1964, (*1968), 1992, 1996
Iowa--1960, 1976, 1988, 2000
Ore.--1960, 1976, 1988, 2000
Wash.--1960, 1976, 1988, 2000
Ga.:--1964, (1968), *1980, 1996
Maine--1960, 1976, 2000
Tex.--1968, 1992, 1996
Vt.--1960, 1976, 2000
Wisc.--1960, 1988, 2000
Calif.--*1960, 1976, 2000
Conn.--1976, 2000
Ill.--1976, 2000
N.J.--1976, 2000
N. Mex.--1976, 2000
Mich.--*1976, 2000
La.--1964, (1968)

Third party votes are in paretheses. Home state votes have stars.

Probably Iowa, Oregon, and Washington are the only true anti-bellweathers since they are the only ones to vote for two losing Democrats and two losing Republicans.

Though in all these 3 cases it's b/c they went from being Republican leaning, thus voting GOP in close elections, to being strongly Dem leaning and voting for losing Democratic candidates. It could however indicate that a base including these three states is not optimal...

[Gustaf]

Except that you forgot that Washington, Maine, Connecticut and Michigan voted for the losing candidate in 1968 as well.

OK, that strengthens Washingotn and Maine as anti-bellwethers then. I think that anti-bellwethers might reflect bad geographical positions.

[Gustaf]

Yup, Washington wins in modern times. It has voted for 5 losers in the last 11 elections, 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

Minnesota did 5 times as well, though it never voted for a losing Republican (since WWII).