Senate Elections - 2004 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 24, 2024, 10:25:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Senate Elections - 2004 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Senate Elections - 2004  (Read 110682 times)
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: December 28, 2003, 10:01:53 AM »

Kos is much worse then MYDD.

Obviously partisan (as much as any of us I guess) and very much wishful thinking -- but If I were them, I would be wishing too.


The general assumption here is the Republicans should pick up a few of the retiring Democratic seats for a net gain of 2-3 seats.
However for a fairly detailed alternative view and reality check see:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/24/215824/13
and
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2003/12/25/172540/05
In this analysis the GOP will likely lose IL and AK, while OK and CO (if Hart runs) are toss ups.  Races that could come into play are: NH, PA, KY, even UT and AL
The Democrats are likely to lose only GA, with FL as a toss-up, NC, SC, LA lean Democratic, and FL would lean Democratic if Harris runs.  SD might become competitive, if Thune runs. (No mention of WA?)
Thus this analysis gives the Democrats a good chance to take the Senate.

Senate races can run contrary to Presidential races (Bush won in 2000 but the Republicans lost 5 seats), so even a Bush victory does not imply the Republicans will retain the Senate.    I think the Senate races will turn out to be very interesting and we'll need to wait until the primaries are done and the final match-ups are known to get an accurate idea of how they are heading.  If the Presidential race is another close election, it may come down to who can raise the most money under the new rules and who best gets their message across.  Of course, if Bush (or Dean?) wins easily, it would probably affect some of the Senate races as well.


What is MYDD??
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2004, 03:07:45 PM »

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2004, 03:56:31 PM »

Conidering that the 2002 senate election in Colorado was decided by a 5% margin with an incumbent running, I think that the seat will be a tossup as a vacancy.

Cool, then the Democrats might not lose the senate elections too badly! Cheesy

Wait a minute... Sad
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2004, 04:30:26 PM »

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.


B/c CO is a Republican state in general?
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2004, 04:42:04 PM »

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.


B/c CO is a Republican state in general?

Right.  So if two more or less equal candidates run, it should go GOP.. but how likely is that.  I just have no idea who's lined up.

Senatorial elections don't seem to correpond that closely to general political alignement though. Look at Indiana, South Dakota, etc.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,781


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2004, 05:13:20 PM »

Hm, could this affect the composition of the senate? That seat was viewed safe before right?

Yeah it was very safe before, now it is tossup or actually probably leans Republican slightly.


B/c CO is a Republican state in general?

Right.  So if two more or less equal candidates run, it should go GOP.. but how likely is that.  I just have no idea who's lined up.

Senatorial elections don't seem to correpond that closely to general political alignement though. Look at Indiana, South Dakota, etc.

Right, they're sort of the least likely office to follow a trend.  But even so, they are effected by the state's tendency more often than not.  Like I said, if the candidates were equal personally, the GOP one would win in Colorado.  But a very strong Dem would beat a weak GOP.

Yeah, I agree with that. Will be interesting to see nominees ans stuff.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.035 seconds with 12 queries.