2008, 2012, 2016

[Gustaf]

Trumpists are a bit peculiar in that they are just driven by rage and hate and lack any kind of independent moral core of their own. So they are, for example, homophobic, but not because of "sanctity of marriage" (they'll enjoy banging prostitutes on the side, etc) but more because it's fun to be cruel to people who are different. They care about saying "Merry Christmas" but not because they want to celebrate the birth of Jesus but rather because they hope it might upset people who aren't Christian. And so on.

I think this is why Trump did so well among rural whites in the North. Actually religious candidates can make them feel bad about their greed, strip clubs etc but Trump kind of gives people a pass on being immoral.

Whether that development is good or bad isn't entirely clear, though I personally lean towards it being bad.

I think the main clash next time in the GOP primary will be about whether you distance yourself from the Trump legacy or not. Establishment candidates will want to do that to appeal to swing voters but a Trumpist candidate will paint them as sell-outs if they do.

[Gustaf]

There's a difference between being a warrior on issues of religion and the family (what I call social conservatism) vs being a warrior on issues of national identity (what I call cultural conservatism). People who are primarily social conservatives by my definition tend to be less right wing on racial issues than people who primarily cultural conservatives are. Example: George W. Bush.

Trump himself is decidedly the latter. He decided to take up enough social conservative issues like abortion and SCOTUS in order to win both blocs of voters. I expect the GOP to be primarily cultural conservative going forward while throwing enough bones to social conservatives (who won't vote for progressives) to keep them in the fold.

Yeah, I think this is correct. It also seems like most religious conservative leaders have given up on trying to reclaim the party and are settling for some judges.