Most Vulnerable Governorships

[Gustaf]

My ranking:

1. NEW YORK (Open-R)
2. OHIO (Open-R)
3. ARKANSAS (Open-R)                                                           
4. MASSACHUSETTS (Open-R)
5. ALASKA (Murkowski-R)                                             

6. COLORADO (Open-R)
7. MARYLAND (Ehrlich-R)                                                   
8. MICHIGAN (Granholm-D)
9. ILLINOIS (Blagojevich-D)
10. IOWA (Open-D)
11. WISCONSIN (Doyle-D)                                   
12. OREGON (Kulongoski-D)
13. MINNESOTA (Pawlenty-R)
14. FLORIDA (Open-R)
15. CALIFORNIA (Schwarzenegger-R)
16. MAINE (Baldacci-D)
17. RHODE ISLAND (Carcieri-R)
18. PENNSYLVANIA (Rendell-D)

19. ALABAMA (Riley-R)
20. GEORGIA (Perdue-R)
21. SOUTH CAROLINA (Sanford-R)                                       
22. TEXAS (Perry-R)
23. TENNESSEE (Bredesen-D)

24. OKLAHOMA (Henry-D)
25. NEVADA (Open-R)
26. CONNECTICUT (Rell-R)
27. KANSAS (Sebelius-D)
28. HAWAII (Lingle-R)
29. VERMONT (Douglas-R)
30. ARIZONA (Napolitano-D)
31. SOUTH DAKOTA (Rounds-R)
32. WYOMING (Freudenthal-D)
33. NEW MEXICO (Richardson-D)
34. NEW HAMPSHIRE (Lynch-D)
35. IDAHO (Kempthorne-R)
36. NEBRASKA (Heineman-R)

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

California should not be in top 6 or 7. No way does it rank higher than NY, OH, AR, MA, AK, MD, etc.

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

I don't take one single poll like that and read too much into it. And why would Westlund do that well? I have to say that I give a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic state in a Democratic year the edge, even if he is impopular. I do think it'll be close, but Wisconsin is right now looking closer to me.

[Gustaf]

Why should I rank Oregon higher than any of the other races? I definitely think Oregon is in play, but so are a lot of Governor's mansions.

The latest poll shows Kulongoski up by only two points without Ben Westlund included.  Even if Westlund polls in at the very lowest range people are predicting (which is around 8 percent), that would probably be enough to give the GOP the advantage.

I would even wager that the GOP is probably ahead right now.

I don't take one single poll like that and read too much into it. And why would Westlund do that well? I have to say that I give a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic state in a Democratic year the edge, even if he is impopular. I do think it'll be close, but Wisconsin is right now looking closer to me.

I would not either.  However, Oregon is not an extremely Democratic state.  Kulongoski is dangerously unpopular.

The only reason Kerry won in 2004 was the independent vote, of course.  In places like Washington County, where Republicans still outnumber Democrats significantly, the self-identified independent vote is critical.  Every approval poll has shown Kulongoski's disapproval among independents over 60 percent.  Washington County and suburban independents will eat up a candidate like Ben Westlund - moderate libertarian with a liberal lean.  Every prediction I have seen says he should achieve between 8% and 25%.  I'm not sure what to think of that, but it sounds fairly reasonable.

Now, here's the big, big rub.  The Rasmussen poll showing Kulongoski up two had a 52-44 approval surplus.  Surplus!  This is the only poll to show a positive approval rating for Kulongoski.

Westlund not being included, and the ridiculously positive approval rating for Kulongoski, both make me think that the GOP probably has a pretty decent advantage working here.

I hear you, and I admit to not knowing all these fact before. Still, I've learned over time onyl to trust "hard" facts and not speculation. If you're right on all these matters, it should show up in polls. Until that happens I'm gonna be conservative and keep Oregon lower than states where we know more on what's happening.

To give an example, I held Alaska way down the list, even though I thought the odds of KNowles getting in and kicking out Murkowski were pretty good. But I waited until Knowles actually announced before I moved it up.