a little theory (user search)
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  a little theory (search mode)
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Author Topic: a little theory  (Read 6219 times)
Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: May 31, 2004, 01:04:06 PM »

Bush main weakness lies in the big states. Discarding the 3 biggest, safe states, TX, CA and NY, leaves 5 roughly equal big states with more than 15 EVs: MI, IL, PA, OH and FL. Gore won those 3-2 and still lost the election. Since then it has been tilted even more against the Democrats. If Bush can win 3-2 there is no way Kerry can win the election. There simply are no plausible smaller states to make up about 30 EVs. On the other hand, Bush could lose 2-3 and still win. He could even lose 1-4 ans still win. If Bush loses all of the above states except Florida, he only needs to win 2 states, such as Oregon/Iowa and New Mexico to win the election.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2004, 02:54:17 PM »

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it... Wink
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,785


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2004, 04:23:14 PM »

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it... Wink

yes you did, actually....

I guess I am a visual learner, not too good at that "read'n" stuff.

Cheesy

I've been following those "notes to self" eagerly anticipating progress... Wink
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