538 senate model now out (user search)
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  538 senate model now out (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 senate model now out  (Read 1840 times)
Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: September 18, 2020, 04:45:15 AM »

They give Democrats 58% chance at the senate with AZ, CO, NC and ME the 4 most likely pickups in that order. And it has a map!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/senate/
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,783


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: September 18, 2020, 04:56:54 AM »

Seems decent, though I'm not sure what non polling factors they are including in there. Gideon is consistently getting comfortable leads, but it's only a 51% chance for her in the forecast.

The polls-only model gives Gideon like 75%, the Deluxe one drops it to 51%.
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