Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
Posts: 29,783
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
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« on: December 25, 2017, 08:03:16 PM » |
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This always boils down to one's definition of plausible. I don't think Bredesen winning in Tennessee and O'Rourke winning in Texas is particularly far-fetched. I don't expect either but it certainly seems like something that could plausibly happen if Democrats have a good night. They could also retain all seats. Arizona having a special and that also going Dem also seems like a fairly realistic chance. So I'd say +5.
Anything beyond that (i.e. MS) requires a bunch of specific things that aren't super likely to happen so I'd rule that out. So a 54-46 majority.
In the House I haven't gone over the numbers enough to say.
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