Gustaf
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Atlas Star
Posts: 29,783
Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70
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« on: July 03, 2017, 06:31:33 AM » |
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While I wouldn't deny that many network journalists might have hoped for a Trump loss I think there is a somewhat simpler explanation which has to do with evidence contradicting priors.
Regardless of what one hoped would be the outcome it was reasonable for most people to enter election night with a fairly strong prior that Clinton would win. That's what the polls, betting markets and prediction aggregators were all saying. If evidence is coming in that contradicts what you expect you're slower to accept it.
This of course often makes sense. Even if your exit poll says Trump is winning Vermont you're gonna disregard it. Even if the early precincts show Clinton on course to win Oklahoma you'll give it no credence.
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