Meanwhile, in the larger cities and suburbs, Anti-War sentiment was already starting to hit critical mass, because Oregon National Guard units faced a disproportionate share of military casualties because of Donald Rumsfeld "Stop Loss" program, lack of support for Up-Armored Humvees, and as one of the Top Five National Guard Units in the Country we filled the gap in the early days of the Occupation of Iraq....
It wasn't until '05 and '06 in the small mill towns and rural parts of Oregon where sentiment started to shift heavily against the Iraq War....
I am firmly of the opinion that this explains some of the dramatic swings towards Obama in '08 in various rural communities and Mill Towns throughout Oregon, were more a belated reaction to the War, than a response to the Great Recession of '08.
I'm glad that you point this out. I think that we've underrated the role that military casualties played in turning certain parts of the country against Bush and, consequently, toward Obama.
It's also not a group of voters whom anyone would expect to have much affection for Clinton in 2016. For all of the "safari in Trump country" coverage that has run in the political media over the past several years, there's been little discussion of this topic. The data seem to be out there, though, so maybe it's something that could get a closer look.
I distinctly remember reading a 538 analysis that claimed (based on some long-running panel survey I think) that most/a lot of Obama-Trump voters were actually Bush-Obama-Trump voters - traditional Republicans who turned on the GOP due to wars/financial crisis and then came home again.
At the less granular level it kind of makes sense since, say, Wisconsin was only lean D during Obama and was a closely contested swing state under Bush just as it is now.
