Who will come in third place in each state?

[Gustaf]

Trump coming in 3rd in DC doesn't seem totally impossible given how unpopular he seems to be there.

[Gustaf]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

[Gustaf]

While I don't expect Johnson, Stein, or McMullin to finish in the top two in any state, what about individual counties, or individual cities/towns/villages?  Are there any where we expect either Clinton or Trump to finish outside the top two?  Or do we have to go down to the precinct level?

Did Perot win any counties in 1996? I think not right? That'd seem like a decent benchmark since the race is likely to be roughly something like that year.

I don't think Perot won any counties in 1996.  He did win a few in 1992, along with finishing second in a couple of states (Maine and Utah) that year.

Yeah I know he did in 1992. But then he pulled nearly 20% of the vote. Johnson looks more likely to be in high single digits like Perot of 1996.