Dems Can't Keep Losing Dixie

[Gustaf]

If you look at how the South voted in say 1972, 1984 and 1988 and then look at how it voted in 1976, 1992 and 1996 you realize that the results in the last two elections don't necessarily mean that much. The big question is rather whether the same goes for the Northeast or not.

[Gustaf]

Also, you have to look at WHY Republican states grow. Is it because Republican voters are having more children? B/c that's the only scenario that would make it reasonable to see the trend as indefinitely advantageous for the GOP. Much of the demographic change is actually migration and that just means redistributing the same voters. We see this happening with Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia and so on. At some point this will start flipping these states.

And Vorlon, as always, raises an excellent point. Parity is probably the natural situation in the modern world.

Finally, demographic changes tend to affect policy, not the parties. Basically, if the US would shift to the right both the GOP and the Democrats would eventually shift accordingly. The GOP could in fact easily over-trend and end up to extremist and lose their hold on the country. This has happened in the UK, to give one example.

[Gustaf]

Yay, someone called my post excellent!

I think Vorlon's point on elected officials is interesting. What is more relevant though is whether the realignement will continue down the line. That is, will Democrats lose state ligislature majorities in states like Arkansas and Alabama and will the GOP lose the NY senate, Governorships in places like RI, VT and so on.

[Gustaf]

I think we might be actually be underestimating the Edwards effect a little. When you think of it Kerry had to deal with a) being a Northeastner with very bad Southern credentials and b) the fact that the number of Dixiecrats has been constantly diminshing in the past four decades. Still, when you compare him to Dukakis or McGovern he didnät do too shabby?

[Gustaf]

It's not just about winning the presidency either. It's about winning congress and for that you need to be competitive on all levels of government in all states (or at least try to).

[Gustaf]

If there's one issue that just kills the democrats, it's gun control. It's a failure in the South, West, and most of the midwest outside of Illinois.

The trouble for the dems is that their biggest donors (Soros, Moveon) wear gun control on their sleeve.

I agree we have enough gun control. The dems position should be just to enforce the laws in the books already.

That is a very clever Republican trick, taking a defensive position on an issue and then using that to attack your opponent. On social issues Democrats shuold definitely adopt it. In effect, you accuse your opponent of wanting to change the status quo and step up to stop that. That both energizes your own base and brings the moderates home.