PF Scenario Improvement Task Force

[Gustaf]

The 2000 scenario seems horribly slanted against Bush.

[Gustaf]

No, I thikn it was Gore v Bush. It gives Gore an overall score of 26 v Bush's I think 19.

[Gustaf]

Played the scenario in question and need I say more?

Gore: 60% or 75 443 137 votes and 512 EVs
Bush: 32% or 40 111 354 votes and 26 EVs
Nader: 6% or 7 484 640 votes

Best states:
Gore:
Washington, 73.2%
Ohio 70.7%
New Jersey 70.7%
Virginia 70.2%

Bush:
Idaho: 55%
Michigan: 49.6%
New Hampshire: 48%

Worse states:
Gore:
Idaho: 42.5%
New Hampshire: 43.9%
Hawaii: 46.9%
Iowa: 47.3%
Michigan: 47.5%

Bush:
Washington 20.1%

Can't be bothered to type more now...note though that Nader beat Bush in DC: 8.2% v 7.5% and that Nader got 19.2% in Vermont, 12.8% in California and 11.9% in Alaska.

I'd also like to note that I got 68% in Texas, 64% in Wyoming and 55% in Utah. I say, YEEEEEHARGH!

[Gustaf]

Reese, downloaded and played your scenario. It seemed more realistic, thought the eventual result was still a blow-out:



Gore v Bush v Nader v Buchanan

PV: 53-37-4-4

EV: 461-77

Best states:
Gore:
Rhode ISland: 66.6%
Massachusetts: 65.6%
New York: 63.1%
Washington: 60.5%

Bush:
Alaska: 59.1%
Idaho: 56.1%
Utah: 52.6%

Nader:
Arizona: 10.4%
Connecticut: 9.9%
New York: 9%

Buchanan:
Vermont: 17.1%
Kentucky: 13.7%
Mississippi: 13.7%
Alabama: 11.3%
North Dakota: 11%
Montana: 10.6%

Worse states:
Gore:
Alaska: 29.6%
Alabama: 35.9%
Idaho: 37.2%
Utah: 37.7%

Bush:
Rhode Island: 25.3%
Massachusetts: 26.7%
New York: 27.3%
Vermont: 29.2%

Nader:
Georgia, Mississippi&Kentucky: 0.9%

Buchanan:
Connecticut: 0% (27)
Maine: 0% (235)

Note though that in the last poll it was 44-40-4-4 and the elctoral vote was something like 301-227. I won by a late surge.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, 1996 is laughably off...Clinton with integrity 4 and Dole with an integrity of 2? Eh?

Casey, Nader starts out with 3%. That's more than he has ever got in a general election. Buchanan getting even 1% also seems a tad too high.

Now, on the stats of 2000 I would like a discussion. I think the most generous you can give Bush in stats for 2000 is something like this: 3-4-2-2-3-3-2

Leadership: Bush didn't show anything in particular here before 9/11 I say he gets a 3.

Integrity: The 4 might be controvesial, but he ran on his integrity a lot and with the Gore/Lieberman ticket getting a 4 Bush has to have the same.

Issue knowledge: We all know the stories and facts like not having visited any countries but Mexico speak for themselves. 2

Experience: Governor of Texas as sole experience isn't much. 2

The rest I leave unchanged. I don't know if Gore to balance out should have his charisma put even lower?

[Gustaf]

No, I didn't know that...if you've researched it and all, then good.

Generally, the candidates should start out slightly below the result they eventually got, or at least not way above it. (Unless the campaign changed dramatically towards the end or something. Carter v Reagan is a good exampple of that happening.)