SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[Gustaf]

Sorry if I sound pedantic here, but what would "modern conservative" entail, as you see it? I.e., comparable to what foreign parties? Wouldn't they still overlap quite a lot with Moderaterna?

Same question.

You seem to assume that Moderaterna is a conservative party these days...

I mean taking actual conservative positions. Like, cutting taxes and opposing a large welfare state. Wanting a strong defence. Being a little bit patriotic, perhaps favouring some restrictions on immigration.

Moderaterna is doing none of that at the moment, which is why another party could take it.

But isn't M's centrist turn a consequence of the fact that such a "conservative" party would just never manage to become electorally competitive? Pre-2006 electoral history would point in that direction.

You're taking the wrong attitude. Pre 2006-M usually raked in about 20% of the vote. I think KD would be pretty happy with half of that.

Well, they certainly could get up to 20% (that's what the FrP did in Norway, after all), but even if they did, there's no way they'd get enough support from other parties to lead a government or to push economic policy massively to the right. Thank God Sweden doesn't have a two-party system. In order to really hold power for a significant amount of time, you need to get at least as centrist as M did.

I'm not sure I understand your point. It isn't as if KD is leading a government at the moment either?

My point is that by pushing to the right they could become a strong junior coalition partner in a centre-right alliance as opposed to a weak one like they are now. Disgruntled M voters could vote for them to drag the government rightwards.

Sure, that definitely could work. I'm not really disagreeing with you. My point simply is that this might not be a good thing for the right-wing coalition overall.

Well, if the Red-Greens can win with V...

DC, SD is something quite different. Sure, they encompass part of what I'm talking about but they're not really a traditionally conservative party in the sense I'm after.

[Gustaf]

Election is clearly heating up. This amazing video can be viewed with English subtitles, recommended for one and all: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAQDz6m2XPk

[Gustaf]

Is F! getting into parliament a real possibility?

I doubt it, to be honest. I still haven't gotten an explanation for why anyone should vote for them rather than V - they're basically the same party, with the same leader even. The only F! voter I know supports them because she thinks S hates immigrants and V is tainted by their cooperation with S.

[Gustaf]

Yes, they really seem superfluous, as said earlier.

Why did Schyman leave Vänsterpartiet in the first place, btw?

As for that video... Wow.

She had to resign due to some scandal about fraud or something. After V expelled her she founded F!

[Gustaf]

I broadly agree with SwedishCheese on the party leaders post-election.

I also think S-MP is the best bet currently as the new government.

[Gustaf]

I don't see Alliance minority as viable either. I think the most likely outcome then is S-MP, if they have enough votes for that to make sense. If F gets in they'll probably be included but I don't think F will get in.

[Gustaf]

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.

[Gustaf]

A grand coalition is unlikely, yeah. I don't think it's totally impossible and it's more realistic now than it has been most of the time.

I agree with Tayya though that there is no good and easily workable scenario if it's a hung parliament. My FP friends pointed out to me that they would have to change leadership and stuff before they could join any such government as well.

Indeed, and FP needs to start to prepare the grassroots basically immediately after the election if they would want to enter an S-led government. While the left-liberals could probably swallow supporting Stefan Löfven if he's governing from the centre, we have to remember that FP - like most Swedish parties - is a wide tent in its own way. They're probably going to elect a guy this year who went campaigning for John McCain in 2008, after all.

Most FP activists I know are very anti-S. It would have to be sold as a move to shut out SD if it is to have any traction at all. V would have to be excluded as well. I think it will matter a lot on the specifics of the outcome. If S+MP beats the Alliance in terms of seats maybe they can wing it on their own, even if that'd be pretty shaky.

[Gustaf]

Windjammer, while I am undecided in this election I am generally a right-wing supporter in Sweden. This is quite common - I have friends from abroad who settled here who are firm left-wingers in their home countries but think our left is just too over the top and crazy.

Enno, they definitely aren't now. I think they will become eventually, but yeah something like what you say at least.

[Gustaf]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

But overall the type of discourse here is just way to the left of most countries, even if it isn't always reflected in policy.

And of course SAP is one thing. Then you have V and MP who want to do things like abolish homework and grades in the schooling system. The Greens even used to propose things like abolishing interest rates and stock.

For example, as I recall Obama's tax plan in 2008 was similar to what the right campaigned on here in 2006. And the Swedish left branded that as basically reactionary fascism. So people I meet who are ardent labour voters in places like UK or Australia tend to sympathize with the right here. That's a generalization, of course, and we've definitely shifted quite a lot to the right in the last few years but when I formed my political beliefs if was still quite true.

However, this thread should maybe refocus on the election - sorry to derail with my subjective evaluations.

---------------------------

As for the other question - policy wise there is very little difference between the centre-right parties today. There used to be more historically. The main difference as DC says has to do with the type of voter. Even that is disappearing though. They do focus on different policy areas. FP is into education, C into small businesses and KD social policy.

[Gustaf]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

[Gustaf]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

[Gustaf]

I have to agree with Antonio here, the shift to the right isn't exactly new - the process basically started when Palme was shot and the economy was in the gutter in the early 90's. Even the Left Party campaigning on ending tax-paid profits for venture capitalists isn't even close to the employee funds of the 70's (basically a proposal that would force companies to use a share of their profits to buy company shares for unions). Yes, there is radicalism left in V and MP, but it's not what they're campaigning on.

There is a distinct lack of social conservatism throughout both the left and right, though, with even the Christian Democrats accepting liberal abortion laws, for example. Economically, the farthest right-wingers of Timbro (our Cato Institute) would feel right at home with Mitt Romney as Prime Minister.

That last sentence is hardly true. I was with a Timbro group in the US during the election and most people supported Obama.

Hmm. I know at least one Swedish pro-Republican on the right (Roland Poirier Martinsson) but I did think there would bemore. I did write "economically", though, and some in the pro-Obama right wing might reconsider without the Tea Party and social conservatism.

RPM is hardly a respected figure in Swedish Timbro circles.

There were a few Ron Paul supporters here and there. It is fair to say that social issues play a part, of course. But I think even economically the Swedish right isn't really as right-wing as one would expect.

[Gustaf]

SAP has lurched to the centre in response to losing 2 elections. Which is part of why I am now considering to vote for them.

Yeah, because Göran Persson was such a pinko commie.

He was certainly not a pinko commie, not sure where you're getting that from me.

He is clearly sarcastic Gustaf. The rolling eyes on the end is suppose to be an indicator you know...

No, of course, I know he's being sarcastic I just don't get about what. I was making clear that I certainly wasn't implying anything close to that statement.

It is true that there are nuances to the SAP compared to other left parties, like always.

[Gustaf]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

[Gustaf]

This is oddly compelling.

http://vimeo.com/96519529

[Gustaf]

The SCB thingy gets way too much hype. It's severely overrated. That said, it only confirms what we already knew so obviously still troubling for the government.

At least F! is now likely to siphon off a couple of percentage points from the Red-Green bloc.

F! will support the Red-Greens though, so if they get above the 4% treshold it might not matter (though I guess Löfven would prefer not to rely on another party, particularly one led by Schyman)

Btw, what are the reasons for F!'s recent surge (or why did it happen now, and not earlier)?

I'd be really surprised if F! clears 4%.

[Gustaf]

SDU put up a video which is creepy as fck. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VR-lAGj_dlQ&app=desktop

It's based on an even worse French version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4e7n7g1xAM

I find this genuinely scary.

[Gustaf]

Tiina Rosenberg's opinions are main line Swedish opinions even for right side of political spectrum (look opinions that Gustaf repeats all the time). In  original FI there were also Liberals (they even had own MEP).  Idea that Sweden has an feminist party is like Vatican had party promoting Catholic faith.

Lol what. Please don't ascribe feminist opinions to me when you clearly have no clue what you're talking about. The radical version of feminism that she was a proponent of is nowhere near the mainstream in Sweden and certainly not anything I support. I suggest you read up on the concept if you don't want to look stupid when discussing feminism.

Tayya made some good points. Rightwing hacks are flouting the Rosenberg stuff now but it's not very relevant to F! today. There is plenty else to dislike about them as far as I'm concerned.

[Gustaf]

OK, probably Rosenberg is just seen in Finland as a typical Swede concerning feminism (although she is actually Finn).  Same time it was told that Göran Person considered himself feminist, that was interpreted as support to radical feminist world view ( an appeaser of radical feminism).  

Gustaf, I have never seen you to distance yourself from feminist demagogy.

Your media misreports stuff and thus you're excused in being ignorant? That makes no sense.

And why would I distance myself from feminist demagogy? There is next to none of that on this forum. Or in the world for that matter. As a matter of fact, I have never seen YOU distance yourself from feminist demagogy (whatever that means) either! AND you're Finnish, just like Rosenberg. Maybe you're her.

[Gustaf]

I admit that my impression was based on this scandal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gender_War

So your impression was based on some random documentary which (reading the wikipedia article) was eventually revealed to be a huge pile of bullsh*t? Well, that's what I call an informed judgement.

I wouldn't go so far as to call that documentary bullsht. It highlighted the issues with some radical elements of the Swedish feminist movement and I think some of the criticisms were legit (Eva Lundgren for example is a total loon).

I remember I was hanging out a lot with a radical queerfeminist who worked at a women's shelter when this story broke. Even someone like her didn't support the people depicted in the documentary.

The point though is that those people do not really represent Swedish mainstream and I don't think feminism has gone too far in Sweden or whatever. Check our rape trials for confirmation of that.

[Gustaf]

The Swedish Greens are really not ultra-left and have worked with the right on a number of issues as well as governing with them in many places at the local level. That's why one of Sweden's more prominent libertarians backed them last election.

[Gustaf]

The only Swedish party which is clearly moving closer to SD is the Social Democrats. Their strategy on that is pretty obvious.

[Gustaf]

There are weak signs of a government recovery in the polls, which makes it possible that the Red-Greens will be denied a majority. If that happens we might get some chaos.

I find it hard to believe that the left would win Stockholm by that type of margin. Sure, it's swingy, but historically it's been something like alliance +10 compared to national average and if anything has seemed to be trending more and more that way. Would it really be more left than the country?

[Gustaf]

I think the budget/government thing is mostly to make people concerned about what government will happen after the election. It makes sense from the right's perspective.

The immigration thing is I think a fairly logical move as well. Reinfeldt doesn't want to play the racist card and then this is probably the best course of action.