Providing the obligatory maps: here is one with the states Silver calls swing states in grey:
That's GOP ahead of DEM 191-186.
Here is one where I assigned states that are inelastic or have average elasticity to where they would likely fall:
Throughout I assume 50-50 election, roughly speaking. That's a 235-232 map for Romney.
So that leaves Nevada and Ohio as states of average elasticity that are fairly close. And Virginia as a state with low elasticity which is close. And the rest as high elasticity states.
