PURPLE Poll for CO FL IA MN NC NH NM NV OH PA VA WI

[Gustaf]

That seems to hint at a map looking something like this, right:

[Gustaf]

If Romney leads Obama by 1% in CO+NV+NM he must lead in at least one of the 3 states. Looking at the 2008 results it seems reasonable to think that he would be ahead in Colorado. You could potentially make a case that he could also be ahead in Nevada.

[Gustaf]

Tender, it seems unlikely that New Mexico would be the least Democratic in the trio. Colorado was the most GOP in 2008 and also the biggest one.

Vosem, you probably have to weight by population for this to make sense. Especially since in most of the trios there are large differences in size between the states.