RFK vs. Nixon

[Gustaf]

While I think RFK would win, perhaps maybe in a landslide, Nixon would put up a big fight, he sure did against Vice President Humphrey.

One thing I don't think anyone is considering is the possibility of no electoral majority.  In our timeline, Wallace won 46 EV.  He probably would have done the same if RFK had been the Dem nominee.  Perhaps Wallace would also have taken Tenn. and the Carolinas.  That would push his total up to 102.  All Nixon would have needed was 167 EV to throw the election into the House.

Although, all RFK would need to have taken was New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin (or Ohio).  But it still could easily have gone to the House.  Who controlled it at that time?

I attribute Nixon's '68 victory to the Democrats' meltdown in Chicago.  Therefore, I still think RFK would have beaten Nixon.

46 + tenn and the carilinas are not 102

it is 81 I think.

It's 77. Period. And the original number was 45.

[Gustaf]

While I think RFK would win, perhaps maybe in a landslide, Nixon would put up a big fight, he sure did against Vice President Humphrey.

One thing I don't think anyone is considering is the possibility of no electoral majority.  In our timeline, Wallace won 46 EV.  He probably would have done the same if RFK had been the Dem nominee.  Perhaps Wallace would also have taken Tenn. and the Carolinas.  That would push his total up to 102.  All Nixon would have needed was 167 EV to throw the election into the House.

Although, all RFK would need to have taken was New Jersey, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin (or Ohio).  But it still could easily have gone to the House.  Who controlled it at that time?

I attribute Nixon's '68 victory to the Democrats' meltdown in Chicago.  Therefore, I still think RFK would have beaten Nixon.

46 + tenn and the carilinas are not 102

it is 81 I think.

It's 77. Period. And the original number was 45.

original number was 46 actually..... and at the time Tennessee was worth 11 EVs, and the Carolinas 8 and 12, so it totals up to 77, yes, sorry I got confused when I looked at the map and read the Virginia and North Carolina numbers by accident.

No, 46 comes from a Nixon elector in Tennessee voting for Wallace...so it's still 45. And North Carolina hsa 13 EVs.

[Gustaf]

North Carolina does, but Wallace got 1 of them in actuality, not from Tennessee.

Ah, yes that's true, I mixed up NC and TN. But I was still more right than I was wrong, I think.

[Gustaf]

RFK would have won, but we are forgetting much of the sex-scandals that would have erupted at the time, which in reality was only shortly after his death. But, saying that he did have charisma, which in our own timeline helped salvage Clinton in the eyes of the electorate. RFK would have ran again in 72 and lost to Reagan I believe, but the economic situation would not have been right for Reaganomics, he would have been as tied up as Ford was and possibly Ted Kennedy or even Jimmy Carter would have been the Dems nomination come 76 and he would have won. If we say it was Carter, I think he would have won re-election in 1980 and George Bush Snr would have won in 84, with re-election in 88. In 92, I think the GOP would be far more moderate than it in reality was, so any race with the Dems would have been tight. After that I'm not gonna speculate!

If there's no challenge to RFK in the 1972 primaries, we can suppose that George Wallace do not run, right? Then he isn't shot...does he make another indepednent run? Does he run in the priamries of 1976 wiht more success?