Euro 2012 Qualifiers

[Gustaf]

1. I must say that I still think Italy sort of looks a lot less strong than they have historically.
2. Despite that, Italy (together with Germany) is the team that I never count out regardless of how badly they've done.

3. Italy's team is still pretty old, imo. If you look at the German line-up against Austria the majority was younger than 25 (8/11). In Italy's last game only 2 were (and none below 23). The vast majority in Italy is still close to 30 which makes the team pretty old, albeit not by Italian standards.

[Gustaf]

If you look at the German line-up against Austria the majority was younger than 25 (8/11). In Italy's last game only 2 were (and none below 23). The vast majority in Italy is still close to 30 which makes the team pretty old, albeit not by Italian standards.

Close to 30, sure, but we only have two starters that are actually at or older than 30 (I don't even want to count Buffon in that since he's in goal and age isn't much of a factor for him/keepers last much longer in this game).

To nit pick, there definitely was a player (though not a starter) that was under 23 in our last game: Balotelli. He didn't come in until the very end though.

I think the average age on the team is somewhere in the mid 20s and that's not old by Italian standards. This squad is likely younger, on average, than the 2006 team and that's good enough for me.

Yeah, I was talking of the starting line-up, so I didn't count Balotelli. And of course Buffon is fine. Still, it's a fairly old squad. Not too old for the Euros, sure, but next World Cup still looks a bit grim to me, since a large part of the current starters will be 30+ by then.

[Gustaf]

If you look at the German line-up against Austria the majority was younger than 25 (8/11). In Italy's last game only 2 were (and none below 23). The vast majority in Italy is still close to 30 which makes the team pretty old, albeit not by Italian standards.

Close to 30, sure, but we only have two starters that are actually at or older than 30 (I don't even want to count Buffon in that since he's in goal and age isn't much of a factor for him/keepers last much longer in this game).

To nit pick, there definitely was a player (though not a starter) that was under 23 in our last game: Balotelli. He didn't come in until the very end though.

I think the average age on the team is somewhere in the mid 20s and that's not old by Italian standards. This squad is likely younger, on average, than the 2006 team and that's good enough for me.

Yeah, I was talking of the starting line-up, so I didn't count Balotelli. And of course Buffon is fine. Still, it's a fairly old squad. Not too old for the Euros, sure, but next World Cup still looks a bit grim to me, since a large part of the current starters will be 30+ by then.

Prandelli is still experimenting with younger players. We'll probably see a few of them in the remaining qualifiers and Friendlies since we've already qualified.

Younger players being 27-year olds?

I remember in the last World Cup this sort of famous guy who was a commentator in Swedish tv and was a huge Italy fan was really broken down after they lost against Slovakia and was talking about how they needed to let in the new young players. I think his example was Di Natale who was already over 30 and Quagliarella who was getting there. That struck me as amusing and slightly telling of the Italian perspective on age.

I have to say that the strong teams from last Worlds (Germany, Spain, Holland) really look like the strongest ones so far this time around as well.

My guess for the Euros win would be Germany, but it's by no means a given. I'll never make the mistake of counting out Italy. 

[Gustaf]

Younger players being 27-year olds?

25-27 year olds, yes. 

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Sure but if I had to pick a top four, I would honestly say that Italy rounds out that group. I like how things are being set up. It reminds me of 2006: a very disappointing previous tournament, a domestic league scandal and strong skepticism from the rest of the world about our chances despite improvement.

Well, I'd agree that Italy is a good candidate for 4th team. However, my impression is that the difference is larger between the 4th and 3rd than between the 4th and 5th.

[Gustaf]

We need to beat Finland to secure the 2nd place. So I'm hoping that works out. I'm also cheering on Montenegro to make it out in 2nd place. Not that I think they will though.

[Gustaf]

Sweden v Finland is about to kick off.

Reminder to everyone: teams finishing on equal points will be ranked on head-to-head record before anything else. Might be important in a number of groups.

Also, I think Denmark are favourites to take best runner-up. If they beat Cyprus on Tuesday they will likely get it.

[Gustaf]

So far we suck. Finland was very close to scoring.

[Gustaf]

Ok, scratch that.

[Gustaf]

Well, not a good game by Sweden by any means, but we won and that is what matters. Second place now secured.

At this stage, it is all about being best runner-up. Unfortunately, I suspect Denmark will get it. So, here is the deal as far as I can see:

If Sweden beats Holland, we have it regardless of how other stuff goes.

If we tie Holland, we get it if Portugal beats Denmark and Croatia does not beat Latvia by 5-0 or more.

If we lose against Holland, it is over.

Realistically, I think it is between Sweden and Denmark at this stage. I doubt Croatia can pick up the goal difference.

Of course, getting a point against Holland is not that likely. What goes in our favour is a number of things though:

1. No Robben or Sneijder, their best players and playmakers. Also no Affelay and no Steklenburg. Still, the players they have left are still good.

2. They have nothing to play for. Unfortunately, not something that typically bothers Holland I think.

3. We have home ground.

4. Counter-intuitively, Ibrahimovic cannot play since he is suspended. And Sweden actually tends to play better without him than with him. Last Euro qualification we beat Spain 2-0 without him. 

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In other groups, I hope Estonia can get to runner-up. Slovenia might be able to tie Serbia, which would be enough. The Serbian point against Italy is actually utterly useless to them. Had Estonia not lost 0-2 against Faroe Islands they could have clinched 2nd place by now. Lol.

Turkey is virtually guaranteed imo. Germany is not pulling any punches and I expect them to steamroll Belgium while Turkey gets an easy win against the bag of sucks that is Azerbaijan.

Russia has Andorra in the final game which means they have won the group. Ireland should be able to not lose against Armenia at home and get 2nd. Had Armenia not tied Macedonia they would have had the upper hand.

France will likely stave off Bosnia, although it would be hilarious if we could get another Ireland versus France play-off.

Greece has probable taken their group since they should not lose against Georgia.

Denmark will not beat Portugal, I do not think.

A wee bit excitement still in the last group. If Scotland beats Liechtenstein, they would be fine with tying Spain while Lithuania ties the Czechs. I think none of this will happen though.

[Gustaf]

Just an observation going into the final day of the Group stage: while I support Belgium for the runner up spot and don't want to see Armenia get through Group B, the former has to be the least deserving team in contention for a playoff spot while the latter is probably to most deserving. Belgium has screwed up so many matches late in the game, either losing or drawing, that they should have won or at least tied while Armenia has put up a great fight to possibly make it through a tough group. Their performance has been really surprising.

If current play is any indication, I'm willing to bet that Armenia will be the team to watch in the 2014 World Cup qualifiers in Group B (Italy's group). Denmark and Armenia will probably be the teams battling it out for second place. Hell, the latter might even give my guys a scare.

I'll also admit to Gustaf that it looks like I underestimated Bosnia.   I still think France will beat them on Tuesday and they'll lose in the playoff round but they put on a great campaign.

Told you so. I agree though that they will likely not pass France. I'm largely in agreement with your other points as well.

As regards Italy's World Cup group, it is looking quite feisty by now. Malta sucks of course and Bulgaria seem weak, but none of the other three seem to be teams who will just roll over and let you kill them.

I'm upset though - by bringing this up you fooled me into looking at those groups, thus reminding me of Sweden's horrible future. There is no team I wouldn't rather have than Germany. Ireland and Austria for 3rd and 4th pot teams is also bad luck, imo. Ugh.

[Gustaf]

Well, today was a good day. Sure, Holland lacked Robben and Sneijder but their team is still really good and we did lack Ibrahimovic. I am, needless to say, very happy about this outcome!

[Gustaf]

Lol, France. France versus Ireland in play-offs again?

[Gustaf]

Given the results of today's games I doubt it will change - the Czechs won their game, after all.

I hope Portugal fails though. I would like to see Bosnia make it this time.

[Gustaf]

I would say that there is a vast difference between getting either Turkey or Bosnia, both of which I think are pretty damn good teams, as opposed to Montenegro or Estonia who have over-performed in the qualifiers but could easily crumble.

Montenegro did seem to get worse towards the end of the campaign. They qualified based on their very impressive record during the first half of it. On the other hand, playing them in Podgorica seems like pure hell to me.

It obviously depends on how the teams get matched up but I think Portugal, Croatia, Bosnia and Turkey could well go through if the draw falls down that way. Ireland and Czech Rep have not impressed me a lot in this one.

[Gustaf]

So, play-off draw is done. Unfairly enough it is basically the two strongest from each pot facing each other.

Croatia v Turkey
Portugal v Bosnia
Ireland v Estonia
Czech Rep v Montenegro

[Gustaf]

I will root for Bosnia, Ireland, Montenegro and Croatia.

My prediction is all the top-seeds making it through. The closest game will probably be Croatia v Turkey. The Turks should have a psychological advantage after last Euros...

[Gustaf]

To sum up the qualification campaign so far, I think Germany and Spain clearly stand out as the two strongest teams, with Holland 3rd.

Behind them, Italy seems like the strongest contender (congratulations Phil). France and England will also want payback and, who knows, might get it this time.

If Portugal and Croatia both qualify we could have a couple of hellish groups, since France and Portugal will then both be in the 4th pot, given current rankings. A group could then go something like

Spain
Germany
Croatia
France

[Gustaf]

That draw went horribly wrong. Basically two matches of Grade A teams vs Grade B teams and two matches of Grade B teams vs Grade C teams.
And bad luck for Bosnia again, who really deserve to qualify some of these days, missing out over the past decade while several weaker European sides got a qualification or even two in edgewise.

Croatia vs Turkey has entertainment potential. Though not with the way Turkey have been playing recently.

Agreed. A better draw would have been Estonia/Montenegro v Portugal/Croatia with Czech/Ireland meeting Bosnia/Turkey.

I am hoping Bosnia can get Portugal this time. They definitely deserve to qualify for a tournament at some point.

[Gustaf]

Slovenia tied the US in Worlds right?

The only exciting qualifier is Bosnia v Portugal. I'm really rooting for Bosnia. Hope they can pull an upset! Remember that a 1-1 tie is enough to see them through.

I'm also hoping Sweden's streak of not losing against England since 1968 remains intact after today!

[Gustaf]

I'm also hoping Sweden's streak of not losing against England since 1968 remains intact after today!

Because of the failure of the current management to take a stand against racism, so am I.

Right, read about that. Terry seems to be quite the troublemaker for the English team.

[Gustaf]

I doubt we can make it out of the group stage. The best group we can hope for would probably be:

Poland
Russia
Ireland

The fairest groups would probably be something like:

Poland
Germany
Croatia
Denmark

Spain
Russia
Sweden
France

Netherlands
England
Greece
Ireland

Ukraine
Italy
Portugal
Czech Rep

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Although, seeing Germany matched against Netherlands would also be cool.

Basically, pot 1, as always, has the biggest difference. Spain/Holland = bad, Ukraine/Poland = good.

In pot 2, Germany is the one people will be praying to avoid, Russia the one people pray to get. England and Italy are both erratic and always possible to score points off, but the German machine is awful to meet in a group stage. (I would prefer facing Germany rather than Italy in, say, a semi-final though).

In pot 3 it's sort of a wash I think. All the teams have strengths and weaknesses. If pressed I'd say Croatia and Portugal, in that order, are the teams to avoid though.

In pot 4 it's very hard to tell. I think Ireland is the one you want though. France has such good quality player-wise I wouldn't want to face them even with their poor record over the last few years.

[Gustaf]

In pot 4 it's very hard to tell. I think Ireland is the one you want though. France has such good quality player-wise I wouldn't want to face them even with their poor record over the last few years.

I'd want to face Czech Republic over Ireland. Aside from their impressive showing in the playoff round, they've been rusty over the past few years. Their qualifying campaign was lackluster and they didn't even get to the World Cup last year.

Well, then again, neither did Ireland.

The Czechs used to be good, so I might be overrating them. They were at least in last Euros. When was Ireland last in a tournament?

[Gustaf]

Group A

Poland                              
Germany
Croatia
Ireland


Group B

Spain                        
Russia                        
Greece                                          
Czech Republic


Group C

The Netherlands                        
Italy
Portugal                                    
France


Group D

Ukraine                                    
England
Sweden
Denmark


Quarter finals

Germany vs. Czech Republic
The Netherlands vs. Sweden
Spain vs. Croatia
England vs. France

Semi finals

Germany vs. The Netherlands
Spain vs. England

Final

Germany vs. England

[Gustaf]

Agreeing with Lief. I don't think it's the first time, but it might be the 2nd.

I'll probably root for Germany once Sweden is out of the tournament.

[Gustaf]

Anyone who cares more about their national team than their club is not a real football fan. End of discussion.

This seems to assume that one has a club. Where I grew up everyone cheered for the Stockholm posh people team. A minority cheered for another team and got beaten up occasionally. I got beaten up by both for not really caring.

I guess I never really got into it. I don't really feel a connection to either the players or the fans of the local teams here.