Swedish election 2010

[Gustaf]

This link shows the evolution of party support since 1979: http://www.dn.se/nyheter/valet2010/folj-opinionens-vindar-19792010-1.1112402

[Gustaf]

Well maybe transexuals that refuse to identify as either of the genders vote heavily for C and Kd thus bringing the national vote up

Anyway, the explanation here is clearly that the SCB poll is done over such a long period of time. The swing to the governement is more recent since it happened after the opposition presented their policy proposals.

Yeah I thought that might be the case. Also do you know why they have their last poll so early? It would have made more sense to have it in August. A lot of things can happen in four months.

I think they want to avoid being compared to the actual result.

They apparently made an unofficial poll right before the election in 2006 and it predicted a red-green victory.

[Gustaf]

A recent poll asks people who they think would perform best as PM on a number of issues out of Reinfeldt and Sahlin. Reinfeldt leads on all counts with margins ranging from 8% to 40%.

Sahlin continues to be the greatest liability for the opposition.

[Gustaf]

On a totally different note, I'm curious about something. What would motive someone who lived in a city in Sweden to vote for the Centre party?? My understanding is that they are largely an agrarian party that mainly acts as a lobby group for farmers and mostly pushes for bigger agricultural subsidies. So if you live in the middle of Stockholm why would you want that?

I realize the Centre party also tries be sort of kind of environmentalist (even though farmers probably do more to destroy the environment than anyone!) and that they try to position themselves as kind of sort of "centrist" compared to the Moderaterna - but if you want environmentalism - why not vote Miljo party and if you want a wishy-washy centrist party to act as a brake on the Moderates - why not vote Folkpartiet?

I'm just wondering.... 

Well, hardly anyone in the cities vote for the Centre Party, so it is a bit moot, but...

Miljöpartiet is pretty out there on the fringe. I know a lot of people who want responsibile environmental policies and are not far-left who prefer the Centre Party.

A large part of the success in the cities is that the Centre Party has made some libertarian noises in recent years, positioning themselves far to the right of M on issues like labour laws and business policies.

[Gustaf]

If we are to discuss the pros and cons of the parties really in depth it might be a good idea to start a separate thread.

It should be noted though that the Social Democratic party of old is not around anymore. From the early 70s to the mid 90s Sweden fell from a position as the 3rd or 4th richest country in the world to about the 20th or so.

Today, the Social Democrats is, imo, not much or a workers' party, but a party for those who do not work. In one of the most generous welfare states in the world they want to raise taxes on those who work and increase benefits for everyone who does not work.

They have absolutely destroyed the education system in Sweden over the past 30 years (after making it very good in the decades before that, granted).

And of course, it is completely corrupt both in the conventional sense and politically. They've sold out all their ideas and become a vehicle of power greed, as always happens with parties who stay in power too long.

There is a strong social democratic tradition of cynically and consciously lying to the electorate in order to retain power which is not present in any other party in Sweden.

To be honest, the old SAP I sort of like. I would probably have voted for them in a lot of pre-1970 elections. And I like the Greens too. But the cooperation with V is really a clincher for me. The current red-green coalition lacks ideas.

[Gustaf]

So new election very soon in other words.

Possibly, but holding elections outside of normal dates is highly unusual in Sweden (in fact, I can't recall it ever happening, at least not in the last 80 years or so).

[Gustaf]

So new election very soon in other words.

Possibly, but holding elections outside of normal dates is highly unusual in Sweden (in fact, I can't recall it ever happening, at least not in the last 80 years or so).

It happened in 1958 when the coalition between the Centre Party and the Social Democrats ended and Erlander wasn't able to get enough support in the second chamber for his pension reform, but that's the only time in modern history.   

True, my bad.

[Gustaf]

That was a situation where there was a conflict between who controlled the upper and lower houses of parliament - can't happen now since Sweden abolished its upper house a long time ago.

In Norway there have been deadlocks like this where the Progress Party prevents anyone from forming a government - sometimes they end up with a minority government formed by the small centrist parties.

Could you ever have a situation in Sweden where say the Centre, Liberals, Christian Dems and Greens forms a centrist minority government?

It was discussed after 2002, but it is very unlikely today, imo.

[Gustaf]

Basically, they did a radical move to the centre under a leadership that has inspired a lot of confidence. They're looking pragmatic and statesmanlike in a way they didn't in the old days.

And, of course, junior coalition partners often tend to be over-shadowed.

Btw, the threshold is 4%, not 5%.

[Gustaf]

New poll from Novus:

Blue bloc:

M: 33,1%
FP: 6,6%
C: 4,8%
KD: 4,6%

Total: 49.1%

Red-Green bloc

S: 30,0%
MP: 9,3%
V: 5,2%

Total: 44,5%

Margin: 4,6%

Incidentally, SD: 4.6%

We're in for an exciting campaign, or so it seems...

[Gustaf]

I'm currently in Almedalen, the biggest political event in Sweden. I'm gonna report on my experiences there when I have more time.

[Gustaf]

Highlight of the day: Finance Minister Anders Borg shook my hand!

[Gustaf]

So, couple of interesting things that I learned:

1. Sweden Democratic voters tend to be craftsmen and other such people who are culturally working class but economically fairly well-off. They are thus the anti-thesis of the typical V-voters who are poor academics.

2. Some of the pivotal voters are so-called "gråsossar" - people who were born in the working class but who have risen to the middle and upper classes through education and work white-collar jobs in the private sector, often in the large, classic companies of Swedish industry in the industrial towns around the country (ABB in Västerås, etc).

3. Lots of interesting stats on voters and their life-styles that I will dig up later. V-voters use drugs, don't shower and have lots of sex. M-voters play golf, S-voters want to go to Mallorca for vacation. Most is expected, some is not.

4. We're going to have to deal with major changes in the welfare system once the baby-boomers retire and people in general live longer and longer.

5. The Red-Green parties are sort of clueless when it comes to running the country. S is very smart when it comes to running campaigns. C and KD are clueless when it comes to running their own parties. More on this later.

6. It might interest the one or two non-Europeans still reading this thread that the FP-leader Jan Björklund devoted part of his speech to defend Sweden's participation in Afghanistan (which the left wants to end). He wouldn't be a liberal politician if he contented himself with that though. He had to move even further and say that we should be grateful to Americans for sacrificing their lives for freedom in the struggles against fascism, communism and now islamic terrorism.

I will post more later on the actual speeches.

Oh, of course, the big news, imo, is that M will not cut any taxes next year if reelected. Might be the first time ever M does not campaign on tax-cuts. Instead Reinfeldt promised to spend on the welfare state. And, in other news, MP wants to make it illegal to have malls far away from cities. What's the appropriate English expression again...ho-hum?

[Gustaf]

I was told, from inside sources, that it was either prostitute or child pornography the day before the news broke. But it happened so late that it had no time to become a story (I went home early this morning).

I think the Reinfeldt strategy is brilliant, and Göran Hägglund (kd) attacked the left for their promise to give 12 billion more to welfare pretty effectively.

[Gustaf]

4. We're going to have to deal with major changes in the welfare system once the baby-boomers retire and people in general live longer and longer.

Wait, you just found that out.

I wasn't aware of the extent, time-frame or solutions in any great detail previously, no.

[Gustaf]

Cheese,

Why Hörby - Höör area is only somehow centrist area in Skåne.

The reply to the question "Why is area X so heavily for C" invariably comes back "because there are no people there"

I think this is the case in Hörby-Höör too.

[Gustaf]

Looking at the results though, it isn't the most centrist area in Skåne. Svalöv, followed by Båstad and Höörby were strongest for C.

[Gustaf]

I was going to post that too.

Skop used to be pretty bad but has probably become better over the years. This is more or less in line with other polls as well.

If S fails to break 30% and becomes only the second biggest party, then...pigs will fly.

[Gustaf]

If S fails to break 30% and becomes only the second biggest party, then...pigs will fly.

I wonder if Baylan still thinks they're gonna get 40% >:-) I suspect he will be one of the first pigs to fly if S lose both election and their status as unbeatable biggest party.

Yeah. I saw a debate (sort of) between him and Schlingmann in Almedalen. He was actually pretty good in that seminar, but generally he is awful. Then again, party secretaries tend to be awful. Then again, he was bad even when he was a minister.

[Gustaf]

Fakta: Opinionsmätningen
Parti Juni Juli Differens
Centerpartiet 5,0 5,3 0,2
Folkpartiet 5,6 5,9 0,3
Moderaterna 31,8 30,4 –1,4
Kristdemokraterna 4,5 5,1 0,6
Socialdemokraterna 30,8 30,2 –0,6
Vänsterpartiet 5,7 5,5 –0,2
Miljöpartiet 9,3 9,3 0,0
Sverigedemokraterna 5,7 5,0 –0,7
Övriga 1,6 3,4 1,8

Blue bloc: 46.6%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

[Gustaf]

What´s up with Sifo and Synovate ? No poll from them for a long time now.

Credible pollsters don't poll in July because no Swedes are at home during July. Everyone is sitting in their red cottages.

[Gustaf]

http://www.svd.se/nyheter/inrikes/prideparaden-i-bilder_5067043.svd#image_8

I think this is actually Sweden's minister for immigration and gender equality dressed up as Catwoman for the Stockholm Pride festival.

[Gustaf]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested. Having worked a little bit for United Minds I sort of like them though.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

This more or less confirms all the other polls we've seen. Government is ahead, S is doing badly, SD is going to wreak parliamentary havoc by getting in and preventing a majority for either side.

[Gustaf]

Reinfeldt certainly is not going to be removed unless something catastrophic happens. He has been the most successful M-leader ever.

Sahlin on the other hand is likely to be gone after the election unless the Red-Greens can form a coalition. Will comment more on Tender's questions later.

[Gustaf]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

Another thing to consider is that this poll has the Centre Party dangerously close to the 4% they need to have any representation at all and other polls have had the Christian Democrats flirting with the "extinction line". Its not inconceivable that one of the bourgeois parties drops out of the Riksdag and the SD get in - then the fur would really start to fly and you might have a Red/Green government by default.

For so many years Sweden seemed immune to the cancerous xenophobia you see in the Denmark (DPP), Norway (Progress party) and the Netherlands (PVV) - I wonder why its only now that the extreme right is suddenly rearing its head in Sweden?

Neither C nor KD are likely to get knocked out. They usually gain support as the campaign gets underway and M voters will switch to save them if they appear to be in danger when we get near the election day.

The rise of the SD isn't really that sudden. It's been going on for years. Sweden is less nationalistic and more politically correct in its discourse. Basically, it's a more leftwinged country. Denmark has always been more continental culturally speaking and Norway is a younger nation with the accompanying nationalist that goes with that.