Comprehensive NPR Poll

[Gustaf]

A poll by NPR that's pretty comprehensive is out. Here:

http://www.npr.org/news/specials/polls/mar2004/mar04.pdf

I'll post some of the information I find most interesting on this thread, so you could just wait for that...

For starters, Bush has a 55-39 lead in states he carried in 2000, whereas kerry only leads 50-40 in states Gore won in 2000. Conmsidering that Bush national lead is only 2 points taht's actaully good for Kerry. In states wher Bush won by more than 5% in 2000 he leads 58-35, whereas Bush lead is only 50-46 in those he won more narrowly. For Kerry the correpsonding nubmers are 51-39 and 49-42. In the Great Lakes states Kerry leads 48-44. More to follow...

[Gustaf]

I couldn't get the link to work, but the most intriguing thing to me about your comments is the possibility of Bush being Gored.  Imagine that Bush wins the Red states by a few points more than he did in 2000, but Kerry wins the red states by a few points less, but somehow wins Ohio or Florida (with some states flipping, but not negating the gain of OH or FL).  Kerry could win while losing the popular vote.  This is the first poll I've seen indicating such a possibility is even thinkable.

Funny thing is I thought Gore might win in 2000, despite losing the popular vote.  It could happen.

Exactly, that's what I fiund really interesting too. I guess I'll have to keep you posted then...no pun intended..

[Gustaf]

Bush leads among rural voters 59-35 and Kerry leads the urban voters 52-38. Suburban voters are apparently tied, 46-46.

Note to Vorlon, the scrutinizer of polls: this one appears to be pretty good to me, even though I don't know enough about the American electorate and pollsters to judge accurately. But any poll that publishes its methods and questions clearly gets some confidence from me...unlike the EU polls, for example...

[Gustaf]

I couldn't get the link to work, but the most intriguing thing to me about your comments is the possibility of Bush being Gored.  Imagine that Bush wins the Red states by a few points more than he did in 2000, but Kerry wins the red states by a few points less, but somehow wins Ohio or Florida (with some states flipping, but not negating the gain of OH or FL).  Kerry could win while losing the popular vote.  This is the first poll I've seen indicating such a possibility is even thinkable.

Funny thing is I thought Gore might win in 2000, despite losing the popular vote.  It could happen.

Exactly, that's what I fiund really interesting too. I guess I'll have to keep you posted then...no pun intended..

OK, all in all, among those states that went for Bush by more than 5%, making up 31% of the respondents, Bush leads 58-35, the opposite states, 34% of respondents, Kerry leads 51-39, whereas the swing states, 35%, Kerry leads 47-46, so a tie, basically.

[Gustaf]

63% rank their interest in the election as a 10 (high), compared to 37% in 2002, 43% in 1998 and 55% in 2000. All of the latter one are October results as well! That indicates that turnout might be higher this electin than the last time.

[Gustaf]

Strong Democrats are more interested (75% say 10) than Strong Republicans (66% say 10). 49% of independents have this high rank as well.

[Gustaf]

Also, Bush is having trouble among independents. 17% of respondents declared themselves as hard independents not leaning any way, and 62% of them thinks the country is on the wrong track, 52% disapproves of the president's job and 45% support Kerry. It should be kept in mind that this poll had equal numbers of registered Dems and Reps, which probably helps Bush to a certain extent. If it was weighted for this Kerry would probably lead.

[Gustaf]

A very interesting stat is the one on the 2 most important issues for voters.

Those who have moral values as one of their 2 most iumportnt issues (19%) favour Bush 80-15.

Terrorism/Natl. Sec (24%): Bush, 75-19

Taxes (10%): Bush, 61-33

Education (17%): Kerry, 51-40

Economy and Jobs (49%): Kerry, 53-40

Social Sec./Medicare (23%): Kerry, 53-35

Affordable Health Care (18%): Kerry, 54-32

Situation in Iraq (18%): Kerry, 60-32

Federal Deficit (9%): Kerry, 73-23

[Gustaf]

Also, Bush is having trouble among independents. 17% of respondents declared themselves as hard independents not leaning any way, and 62% of them thinks the country is on the wrong track, 52% disapproves of the president's job and 45% support Kerry. It should be kept in mind that this poll had equal numbers of registered Dems and Reps, which probably helps Bush to a certain extent. If it was weighted for this Kerry would probably lead.

Dems lead GOP by c.5% in voter registration

Yeah, so that should be factored into the equation then.

[Gustaf]

The VAST majority of those who say they're Dems in that poll would vote for Kerry. 85% to be exact.

[Gustaf]

I was surprised that there were not more anti-Bush republicans. There are certainly quite a bit here in NH.

I would have guessed that the number of anti-Bush Republicans would be higher than average in NH. Socially liberal, fiscally conservative libertarian leaning voters.

[Gustaf]

I was surprised that there were not more anti-Bush republicans. There are certainly quite a bit here in NH.

I would have guessed that the number of anti-Bush Republicans would be higher than average in NH. Socially liberal, fiscally conservative libertarian leaning voters.

You got it. But enough of ourr Republicans fall in line.

New Hampshire still seem like one of the best bets for Kerry to swing. Won't be enough though.

[Gustaf]

What i find most interesting about that NPR poll is that when NPR gave the positioning statements for Kerry and Bush to the people, Kerry gained more support than Bush did.  I think once Kerry articulates what he is all about, that'll give him those few percent that can make the difference.

Okay, that makes me distrust the poll right there.  I was waiting for something to jump on.  NPR given the issue statements of the candidates, why not let NOW do it?  Or how about the AFL/CIO chairman?  I don't trust NPR to accuratly dipict the stances of the candidates anymore than I trust a Neo-Nazi to tell me why both sides went to war in WWII.

The differences were maginal, and you could actually READ the issue statements if you're suspicious. So please do that and then tell us what's wrong woth them, but don't just throw about accusations that are unfounded.

[Gustaf]

I just checked out that polling in greater detail and I just have a few comments.

When you look at the numbers, about 10% or so have not yet made up their minds.  

It appears that the majority of those who have not made up their mind are Independents or Democrats.  More women than men haven't made up their minds, and it looks like African Americans and "others," which I am assuming are mainly hispanics have not made up their minds either.

If you extrapulate the percentages they were going to each candidate for these groups, it's clear these voters will trend to Kerry by a 70% ratio or so if they don't mostly vote third party.

This is common in a lot of polls, when republicans are winning and then it is a lot closer on election day than predicted, because most late deciders are minorities and women and people who make less money and are less informed.

I think those numbers look EXTREMELY GOOD for Kerry.  But the election is a long time from now.

I still say though, that without huge inroads in New York and California, it's unlikely Bush will win the popular vote.

Good points. Also, those who are undecided have a tendency to vote against the incumbent.