Xenophobic Sweden Democrats headed for parliament

[Gustaf]

I don't know if someone else has mentioned it, but as an FYI the xenophobic Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna) seems headed to break the 4% threshold and get seats in the Swedish parliament in next year's election.

Neither the left nor the right will thus be able to obtain a majority, most likely. Exactly how it will work out is unclear, so there may be political chaos. I may dig up the actual polls but right now you will have to take my word: basically a large number of polls, including the most reliable ones show SD as high as 5%. 

[Gustaf]

Forgot about this thread. To answer the questions posed:

Tender1:

SD party leader was allowed to write an article in Sweden's biggest newspaper, Aftonbladet, which was focused on alleged islamization of Sweden. The article was actually fairly harmless, apart from the last sentence which seemed to suggest the islamization or muslims is the biggest threat to the country since WWII.

However, in politically correct media circles it was generally believed that the article was so outrageous that the party was doomed. Because of this it was played up and subjected to a number of pretty absurd attacks

(Aftonbladet ran a fact-check where they claimed that there were up to 20 factual errors in the article

Example: SD-leader claimed that muslim women have higher nativity than Swedish women. Aftonbladet claims that this is wrong and cites a source claiming that women from the Middle East have 3 times the nativity of Swedish women. All in all the attack, which was made to save their conscience and reputation of course, was ludicrous)

All in all, the debate benefited the Sweden Democrats rather substantially.

Tender2: that is weird, and I'm sure it isn't true. Must be some kind of typo.

Xahar: The Pirate Party is almost certainly not getting in this time.

[Gustaf]

Which type of areas do you suppose will vote for SD?

Primarily the South (Skåne, Scania in English). That is their stronghold. The North is their weakest region and they don't do too well in Stockholm either. They will probably do all-right in the southern and central parts. They tend to do best in semi-urban areas with lots of immigrants.

[Gustaf]

In other news, the Left Alliance is now above 50%, according to the SIFO poll:

Socialdemokraterna: 36.7%
Miljöpartiet: 10.3%
Vänsterpartiet: 5.2%

TOTAL LEFT: 52.2%

Moderaterna: 25.1%
Folkpartiet: 6.8%
Centern: 5.2%
Kristdemokraterna: 3.7%

TOTAL RIGHT: 40.8%

Sverigedemokraterna: 5.1%
Others: 2.0%

http://www.tns-sifo.se/media/255188/vb%20dec%202009%20gp.pdf

Well, it would seem that the tide has turned. Of course, Sweden's biggest newspaper which is "independently" social democratic has been running a campaign on the new tough Sweden under the centre-right government. Maybe it paid off. There has been a lot of criticism of the tightening of the rules for people on sick leave in recent weeks, maybe that explains this dip for the government.

[Gustaf]

Currently, 6% of Austrians are Muslims, but last year there were 77.752 births in Austria, of which 49.444 (64%) were to Catholic mothers and 10.883 (14%) were to Muslim mothers.

Harebrained comparison. What percentage of women of child-bearing age are Muslims?

That's not really the point though. The point was whether the muslim share of the population was increasing rapidly or not.

Anyway, I just found it amusing that someone would cite statistical evidence in favour of someone's claim and use this as grounds for calling it false.