Why has Tennessee become so Republican?

[phk]

Approaching from a sort of a "asset valuation" perspective.

Any GOP movement in

1) Tennessee
2) Arkansas

is a correction and not a trend.

It was voting overly D given whats going on and now its what it should be.

[phk]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

That's a large part of it, but I don't think Tennessee swung GOP this year because of race alone because if you look at 2006, Harold Ford Jr. almost won the open U.S. Senate seat and he won a significant number of these rural counties that swung so far away from Obama. Even in the primary, these rural counties went solidly and strongly for Hillary (she may actually have won Tennessee seeing as how it went both times for Bill). I don't know; it's an intriguing phenomenon. I think the Southernization of the Republican Party is helping Tennessee become redder in its political leanings, and in the rural areas, I'm sure the GOP's scare tactics of using God guns and gays to get their base out probably works wonders.

Lake County, the small county in the northwestern part of the state, is interesting as well because as far back as I can tell, it has gone Democratic except for this year. I believe that's Tiptonville, if memory serves me correctly.

Tenn. was overly D in the past. It's somewhat where it should be now. Same with Arkansas.

[phk]

No 30 years of the Democrats moving to the left on social issues turned them and 2000 was the breaking point. Clinton won by about a point both times.

What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?

Interesting that Bill Clinton got a higher % in Tenn than Al Gore did.

But it was just overly D in the past, its more or less corrected. No trend whatsoever.

[phk]

Excluding outliers (where Democrats got below 30%). The average share of the D vote from Elections spanning 1960 to 2008 w/o 1972 and 1968.

515.42 / 11 = 46.8563636%
Max: 55.94% in 1976
Min: 41.55% in 1988

With 2008 being around 5% below the 48 year average.

In a 50-50 election, it will likely end up anywhere from (.41,.45].

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What are you talking about, exactly? Clinton never won Tennessee just by a point either time he ran for President and in his entire electoral history in Arkansas I see nothing to suggest he won anything by a point either. So what on earth are you referencing?
[/quote]

Clinton didn't win by much and never broke 47%. It's very difficult to trace trends over the last quarter of the 20th century due to the Reagan and Bush 88 landslide. TN also voted for Nixon in 1960 and even for Eisenhower once so to say it was overwhelmingly democratic is incorrect. It's been overwhelming conservative on social issues.
[/quote]

Clinton broke 47% both times. Though not by much, but he did better than 47% both times.

[phk]

Tennessee 1952-2008

1952- Eisenhower
1956- Eisenhower
1960- Nixon (who lost as a Republican)
1964- Johnson
1968- Nixon
1972- Nixon
1976- Carter
1980- Reagan
1984- Reagan
1988- Bush
1992- Clinton
1996- Clinton
2000- Bush
2004- Bush (overwhelmingly)
2008- McCain (lost as a Republican)

Now you can see that in modern day history TN has never voted for a democrat who last and 2 republicans have carried it despite losing the election. It used to be a bellwether state and throughout the 2000's moved to the right. There isn't a presidential election other than Carter where the democrat candidate won by a landslide. Yes, like any other state south of the Mason Dixon they supported Jimmy Carter more than in other states.

Yep. Historically on average it is a Republican state, it just is willing to vote for a Democrat that is from the region.