Can Obama win without Colorado?

[phk]

If Obama wins, the most likely path to victory would be Gore 2000 States + NH + CO.

[phk]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

who Obama or McCain?

Who wins Ohio wins the nation, unless Obama pulls it out in OH nullifying CO or if McCain prevails in PA.

[phk]

His chances of winning Colorado are not very good - maybe 25% or so.  But his chances of winning the election without it are even less.

who Obama or McCain?

Who wins Ohio wins the nation, unless Obama pulls it out in OH nullifying CO or if McCain prevails in PA.

I do not think that we will win Pennsylvania, just my gut feeling. But, I think that we will pull Ohio by the thinnest of margins.

I meant to say CO, my bad. If CO is won by the GOP than it looks like Gore and Kerry states for the Dems.

[phk]

Yup, but it's unlikely.

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

CO is a younger, healthier, bourgeois type of state, but it is also hawkish and has a strong GOP base in CO Springs, with Dem bases in Denver Metro and Boulder.

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

[phk]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

Gore 2000 + NH + CO is the most likely Obama win. CO being the "Bush state in reach".

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

Umm what is this "california ideology"? I am guessing liberal on social policy and moderate on economic issues?

The general themes of it were "counterculture libertaranism", "cybernetics", "technological fatalism", "free markets".

Maybe pretty close to "techno-utopianism" which was popularized by Wired magazine around the same time.