Charles Evans Hughes and the First World War

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

By the time Hughes took office on March 4, 1917, the events that led the United States to declare war on Germany had already been set in motion for the most part. The only way I can see the United States sitting out the war would be if there was a butterfly that caused the Zimmerman Telegram to either be not sent, or sent via alternate means that did not cause a British interception of it .  Given that the Democrats had run on a peace plank, without the telegram, the Democrat controlled Congress might well have objected to declaring war if asked to by the "war-monger" Hughes if there was no telegram.

The chances of that butterfly happening are remote.  The Germans thought they were using secure ciphers and the best possible means of transmission under the circumstances.  So in all probability the United States arms its merchant ships on schedule and begins mobilization, though the actual date of declaring war is likely later.  There is also likely to be greater resistance to instituting a draft. The Selective Service Act of 1917 initially limited the draft to raising four divisions.  In this timeline, I doubt if the draft will be expanded as much as it was.  Thus, I see a reduced role for the United States in the Great War, and a later date for the Armistice.  Also, with a smaller U.S. Army, no American troops are sent to either Archangel or Siberia in 1918.

Without the prospect of large numbers of American troops being committed in 1919, the Armistice is no where near as one-sided as it was.  The Germans are still as war weary, but they aren't as hopeless.  Germany loses its overseas colonies as well as Alsace-Lorraine, but might well hold on to its newly established client kingdoms in the east.   There certainly would be no Polish Corridor.  Reparations are set at a lower level and Germany is not demilitarized.  Britain and France are simply too war weary to enforce a harsh peace without the prospect of lots of American troops to make the Germans acquiesce to it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In this timeline, I doubt if the draft will be expanded as much as it was.

Why exactly do you say that? Because President Hughes would have wanted to avoid being seen as a warmonger?

The draft was controversial. Canada didn't introduce it until August 1917, Britain didn't until January 1916, and Ireland in 1918. Australia only used conscripted troops within Australia during WW I.  Our own experience with the draft in the Civil War had been very problematic. Under a president not as eager to impose himself on the world stage as Wilson was, I don't see Hughes turning to the draft as soon as Wilson did. Hughes would have focused on building up the Navy, especially its ASW capability rather than sending troops to be ground up in France.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In this timeline, I doubt if the draft will be expanded as much as it was.

Why exactly do you say that? Because President Hughes would have wanted to avoid being seen as a warmonger?

The draft was controversial. Canada didn't introduce it until August 1917, Britain didn't until January 1916, and Ireland in 1918. Australia only used conscripted troops within Australia during WW I.  Our own experience with the draft in the Civil War had been very problematic. Under a president not as eager to impose himself on the world stage as Wilson was, I don't see Hughes turning to the draft as soon as Wilson did. Hughes would have focused on building up the Navy, especially its ASW capability rather than sending troops to be ground up in France.

Couldn't a President Hughes have still eventually implemented the draft, though? Indeed, not as soon as Wilson, but sometime later?

Possibly, but probably not in time for the Allies to go on the offensive in 1918. If the Germans have time to consolidate their gains in the east and begin to get materiel from it, then even if Hughes ramps up the draft, a 1919 armistice is likely not as harsh as the 1918 one was. There's also the variable that without any noteworthy success, the mid-term election of 1918 will see war policy as a major issue, likely leading to no change in the draft until after the election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In this timeline, I doubt if the draft will be expanded as much as it was.

Why exactly do you say that? Because President Hughes would have wanted to avoid being seen as a warmonger?

The draft was controversial. Canada didn't introduce it until August 1917, Britain didn't until January 1916, and Ireland in 1918. Australia only used conscripted troops within Australia during WW I.  Our own experience with the draft in the Civil War had been very problematic. Under a president not as eager to impose himself on the world stage as Wilson was, I don't see Hughes turning to the draft as soon as Wilson did. Hughes would have focused on building up the Navy, especially its ASW capability rather than sending troops to be ground up in France.

Couldn't a President Hughes have still eventually implemented the draft, though? Indeed, not as soon as Wilson, but sometime later?

Possibly, but probably not in time for the Allies to go on the offensive in 1918. If the Germans have time to consolidate their gains in the east and begin to get materiel from it, then even if Hughes ramps up the draft, a 1919 armistice is likely not as harsh as the 1918 one was. There's also the variable that without any noteworthy success, the mid-term election of 1918 will see war policy as a major issue, likely leading to no change in the draft until after the election.

Wouldn't it be difficult for Germany to acquire a lot of materiel from the East considering that the ethnic Poles, Ukrainians, et cetera in the East might not tolerate Germany's theft of their resources, though? After all, it's certainly not like Poles, Ukrainians, et cetera were incapable of rebelling against the Germans!

Who said theft? Unless they tried to kill the golden goose, simply restoring something approximating a peacetime economy in the east would enable the Germans to get enough food and the like to keep the homefront relatively quiet. It was civil unrest, not a lack of war materiel that brought about the collapse of the Deutsches Heer and the Kaiserliche Marine at the end of 1918.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The interception of a Zimmerman telegram would not be butterflied away by a Hughes presidency. The telegram itself might be, but only because the timing of a renewal of unrestricted submarine warfare might be changed.