Will there be a civil war in Iraq?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There has been a low level civil war going on for some time now, obscured by the dust of the insurgency.  What I don't understand is why any of the Al-Qaeda, Baathist, or Sunni insurgents want to force the Shiites into turning Iraq into West Iran.  The long term risks don't merit the illusionary short term gains they would get.  I'm almost tempted to think Rumsfeld is advising them, given how boneheaded they've been of late.