Opinion of the United Methodist Church

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Freedom Church.  Seems pretty moderate on balance, even though they tend to be somewhat more conservative than me theologically.  I wouldn't mind being a member if they lifted their ban on gay clergy and weddings.

That won't ever happen in my lifetime and probably not yours.  The UMC is in some regards a victim of its own success in evangelizing outside the United States. The Methodists in the US are but a fraction of the total membership of the UMC. That's why I foresee the UMC continuing to shrink in this country. The way it is organized makes it nigh on impossible for local churches to go beyond where they have gone on LGBT issues and I see no real future in this country for an otherwise liberal church that doesn't fully embrace the LGBT community.

It's a lot easier for individual members to change church than for a church as a whole to abandon its building and start anew elsewhere, which until the overseas portion of the church liberalizes on that issue is all that UMC members can do to go farther.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I believe most progressive American Methodists are expecting a schism.

It'll be painful if it happens. the progressive schismatics will have to buy new church buildings as the UMC is decidedly not a congregational church.  It'll be easier for progressive members to shift affiliation to other established liberal churches, and I don't see a way for a mass coordinated exodus to establish a new denomination.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2) What's the progressive/conservative proportions in the United States? If progressives are the majority in the United States, could the US branch of the UMC walk out as one group?

Not easily.  The way it's organized, there is no US branch per se.  They have five regional conferences in the US and then several conferences covering various parts of the rest of the world.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2) What's the progressive/conservative proportions in the United States? If progressives are the majority in the United States, could the US branch of the UMC walk out as one group?

Not easily.  The way it's organized, there is no US branch per se.  They have five regional conferences in the US and then several conferences covering various parts of the rest of the world.

That makes it even easier then, no? Presumably the progressives are concentrated in a couple regions. Why couldn't they walk out as a group?

Because their church properties would still be owned by the UMC they are leaving.  As I've pointed out before, the UMC is not a congregationally organized church.  For the most part, the churches are owned by the UMC, not the individual congregations nor by the regions.   It's a lot easier for individual members to leave the UMC than for whole congregations or groups of congregations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It has broad agreement on the social gospel, but how to apply that in specific situations, especially LGBT issues and to a far lesser extent, the role of women in the church, is where a potential schism could occur.  But as I said, given the structure of the UMC, I don't expect a schism, just a slow migration of members for whom a liberal view of those issues is important to other churches where LGBT marriage and ordination are acceptable.