Realistic Independent Confederate States

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The five states that make up the Confederacy, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi are an economic backwater that even petitioned for readmission once they technically "freed" the slaves once their cotton economy collapsed around the turn of the century, but since the United States didn't want to admit states with lots of Negroes they were rejected.

The Republic of Texas of course has managed to do well thanks to cattle and oil, tho it is has had several wars with Mexico. While those have managed to gain it lands south of the Rio Grande, its economy suffers somewhat from having to maintain a high degree of military readiness.

Louisiana alone managed to gain readmission, but that was because that gave access to the Gulf once more. They did so in 1871 after Texas seceded from the Confederacy in a dispute over the election of 1868. As a result, they decided they needed to belong to a country that would be able to protect them from Texian expansionism unlike the CSA.

Alternate history buffs wonder what might have happened had the Republicans picked Lincoln instead of Seward in 1860.  The general consensus is that Lincoln would likely have been able to persuade the Confederate States to remain and at the very least he would have avoided Seward's Folly of treating the Confederates as bluffers who would quickly return to the Union if he did nothing.

Personally, I'm glad the Confederacy remains independent.  Our flag is already too cluttered with stars.

Going from 53 to 58 would only make it worse.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Louisiana alone managed to gain readmission, but that was because that gave access to the Gulf once more. They did so in 1871 after Texas seceded from the Confederacy in a dispute over the election of 1868. As a result, they decided they needed to belong to a country that would be able to protect them from Texian expansionism unlike the CSA.

You can't be suggesting that the US would take back Louisiana without also taking back Arkansas.

No, I'm suggesting that the only plausible path to an independent Confederate States is that there is no Fort Sumter and only the first seven Confederate States secede. Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia only seceded after Fort Sumter, but if someone other than Lincoln is the Republican nominee in 1860, Seward's daffy idea of letting them go because they'll have to come back is likely to be tried.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.

Doubtful.  Britain and France are about the only countries that potentially would have both the interest and capability to involve themselves in Confederate affairs and that would come to a head only if they have a falling out and Britain is looking for a counter to French-backed Mexico. I could see Germany trying to cultivate the United States as a potential ally against the British, but  even with foreign backing, the Confederacy is no threat to the United States. At best the CSA is a power comparable to the ABC powers but with the ever present danger of servile insurrection at home.  There is too much disparity in the strength of the USA and the CSA (especially a seven-or-less State CSA) for an outside power to meaningfully meddle in their relations.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think an eventual war is most likely.

It's extremely unlikely unless there is a war at the time of secession.  It's difficult to see how either the North or South comes to later believe there is a cause for war later if there is a peaceful secession.

A divided America would be ripe grounds for the powers in Europe to use them as a proxy war.

Doubtful.  Britain and France are about the only countries that potentially would have both the interest and capability to involve themselves in Confederate affairs and that would come to a head only if they have a falling out and Britain is looking for a counter to French-backed Mexico. I could see Germany trying to cultivate the United States as a potential ally against the British, but  even with foreign backing, the Confederacy is no threat to the United States. At best the CSA is a power comparable to the ABC powers but with the ever present danger of servile insurrection at home.  There is too much disparity in the strength of the USA and the CSA (especially a seven-or-less State CSA) for an outside power to meaningfully meddle in their relations.

France had major interests in Mexico. Mexico and the CSA combined are almost equal with the U. S. A., and assuredly so if Canada joins in.

In population, they were almost equal, but in the ability to wage war, they certainly weren't. But more importantly, if the North lets the South go peacefully, it's difficult to see why on earth either side would want war.