What's more likely to happen? Dems retake the House in 2018 or Trump reelection?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even if the Trump presidency proves to be a disaster, I don't see the effects as being so obvious as to enable the Democrats to retake the gerrymandered House in 2018.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's a list of what I see as the possible targets in a very good 2018 for the Dems in the House:
CA-10
CA-25
CA-49
FL-18
FL-29
IA-01
MN-02
NE-02
NY-19
PA-08
TX-23
VA-10

That's only 12 seats.  Of course there will also be a couple more that come into possible contention thanks to retirements and/or scandals, but it's still well short of the 24 the Dems need to retake the House.  We'd have to see not merely midterm losses for the Republicans, but an electoral disaster of the likes that hasn't happened since 1974. (2010 was bad but only looks worse than 1974 because of the temporary 2008 gains. )  Could it happen? Maybe, but I doubt it. It's extremely unlikely any fiasco/scandal Trump can get himself into and be unable to shift the blame in at least in part to the previous administration would be sufficient to generate that level of anger in just two years.