US-Israeli Relations After the Election

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

The problem is not Israel. The problem is Israel + territories. If there is no two-state solution, there has to be a one-state solution. And one-state solution means Jewish majority that is, at best, tenuous.

Yeah, Jews are not a majority in the area they control.  Not unless you accept the legitimacy of second-class Bantustans carved out of that area from places the Jews are happy to leave to be Palestinian ghettos.

As for the idea that there is zero racism in the Jewish constitution, I submit that their Law of Return is an inherently racist piece of legislation.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Israel would likely find itself backed up against a corner by hostile powers looking to legislate it out of existence without the US' support.

South Africa spent over a decade in the same place, so don't expect overnight results.

Jews are a majority in Israel, they have a stronger position since the democracy argument is less powerful. Israel also does not have racism enshrined in their constitution despite all the apartheid hyperbole. If the   existence of Israel was really threatened I would still expect most Western governments to back it.

The problem is not Israel. The problem is Israel + territories. If there is no two-state solution, there has to be a one-state solution. And one-state solution means Jewish majority that is, at best, tenuous.

Yeah, Jews are not a majority in the area they control.  Not unless you accept the legitimacy of second-class Bantustans carved out of that area from places the Jews are happy to leave to be Palestinian ghettos.

As for the idea that there is zero racism in the Jewish constitution, I submit that their Law of Return is an inherently racist piece of legislation.

Laws allowing automatic citizenship to certain groups of immigrants are hardly uncommon...

Also, an Israel that didn't give a guarantee of a refuge to any Jew would have been an Israel without a point, given the timing. Calling it "racist" is absurd.

Since it is coupled with a complete refusal to allow Palestinian refugees to return home to Israeli territory ever since the 1948-9, it is hardly absurd.  Jews are allowed to return to the land their ancestors lived in, Arabs weren't allowed to even return to the land they themselves lived in, let alone the land their ancestors lived in.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is also far from unique. See Cyprus.

True, but since when is racism unique to any one group?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'd say offer any Israelis in the West Bank Palestinian citizenship. I imagine they'll use their right of return to Israel, but who knows.

Imagination and reality don't always mesh.  In some future historical tome of The Rise and Fall of the State of Israel this election just past will be a marker where the two-state solution was dealt its final death blow, tho in truth the settlements killed it long ago.  The only question now is how the eventual one-state solution will be reached, and how bloody it will be.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Dan, right now those Asian countries are favoring Israel for the same reason that Israel is for the moment secure, its superior military equipment is something they want access to.  However, the idea that Israel will be able to forever maintain military superiority over its neighbors is laughable.  They simply do not have the resources to do so without outside assistance.  If the US and Europe cut off Israel then Israel's military will first lose the qualitative edge of its equipment over India and China as their own abilities improve, and then lose the edge over its neighbors. Even with a total break with the west, I doubt that Israel will lose its edge in less than half a century, but it will happen.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Most Israeli arguments rely on treating the Arabs as a single unified nation. I would say this was disingenuous but then again, they treat the Jews as a single nation as well, so maybe it's not. It's still pretty dumb though. Palestinian Arabs are not Moroccan Arabs, they cannot be held accountable for each  others actions, at the individual level OR the "national" level.

Which is why the Zionist argument is dumb,  Israeli long term security depends upon the Arabs remaining disunited.  It will take an united Arab consciousness to defeat Israel.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Most Israeli arguments rely on treating the Arabs as a single unified nation. I would say this was disingenuous but then again, they treat the Jews as a single nation as well, so maybe it's not. It's still pretty dumb though. Palestinian Arabs are not Moroccan Arabs, they cannot be held accountable for each  others actions, at the individual level OR the "national" level.

Which is why the Zionist argument is dumb,  Israeli long term security depends upon the Arabs remaining disunited.  It will take an united Arab consciousness to defeat Israel.

Pretty sure the Arab countries have better things to do than to attack Israel.

Certainly that is the case as long as the Arabs are both fragmented and militarily inferior to Israel.  While the former may always be the case, the latter will not.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Most Israeli arguments rely on treating the Arabs as a single unified nation. I would say this was disingenuous but then again, they treat the Jews as a single nation as well, so maybe it's not. It's still pretty dumb though. Palestinian Arabs are not Moroccan Arabs, they cannot be held accountable for each  others actions, at the individual level OR the "national" level.

Which is why the Zionist argument is dumb,  Israeli long term security depends upon the Arabs remaining disunited.  It will take an united Arab consciousness to defeat Israel.

Pretty sure the Arab countries have better things to do than to attack Israel.

Certainly that is the case as long as the Arabs are both fragmented and militarily inferior to Israel.  While the former may always be the case, the latter will not.

Evidence?

No country has ever indefinitely maintained military superiority, especially such a small and outnumbered country.  As it is, Israel only enjoys superiority now because of the assistance it has received from others in the past.  Israel has a extreme numerical inferiority compared to its neighbors in population and it has no particularly desirable natural resources. Imagine if you will if Egypt had military equipment equal to Israel's in quality, but also had a military ten times the size of Israel's to match its population being ten times as great.  Do you really think that Israel would last long if it had to face Egypt in a war in such circumstances without any outside assistance?  Do you really think such circumstances are impossible?  Israel has forgotten the lessons of the Yom Kippur War, and I see no chance of it relearning them before it is too late.

Israel is not in any immediate danger, but it has irrevocably chosen to act in a manner that depends upon it maintaining the unmaintainable.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Pan-Arabism has been weak not because of popular disinterest but because the various undemocratic leaders of the Arab states have their own reasons for being disinterested.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there any evidence to suggest that the Pan-Arabism of the last century was the result of something other than undemocratic leaders of the Arab states being interested in it?

Yes.  Do you really think the abortive attempt to form a United Arab Republic would have gotten as far as it did were it not for popular support for the idea?  Don't make the naive mistake that such leaders don't ever try to secure popular support by trying to co-opt popular positions.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Certainly that is the case as long as the Arabs are both fragmented and militarily inferior to Israel.  While the former may always be the case, the latter will not.

You've been saying this for years (usually with the cop out that it won't happen for at least 50 years), and sure, a lot sh**t can happen in that time.....but why and how do you think it's inevitable?  Which Arab country (or countries) do you think are going to pass Israel militarily?  Most of them are basket cases, granted a few of them have money to burn right now, and they are no doubt burning it, but those wells aren't bottomless, the tap is going to run dry and what then?  The powers in charge will no doubt look to da Joos to blame (again) for the troubles of the masses and the masses will (again) swallow the hook of bigotry, but to what end?  Even if they buy toys on par with the IDF, are they going to learn how to practice using them?  Maintain them properly?  Use them with together with other toys?  If you'll remember the early wars fought here you'll notice the equipment was close in quality (certainly closer than now), the IDF was very much outnumbered yet still came out on top, over and over again.  Arabs can't win wars.

Is it possible?  Sure
Likely?  I don't think so
Inevitable?  No way

And where will Israel get its money and tech to continue having superior toys if it continues to burn its bridges the way it has been?  As I said, I see no way for Israel to turn aside from the course it has chosen.  Conversely, the idea that the Arabs will always remain idiots is itself idiotic.  History is littered with countries that thought it would impossible for them to ever be defeated by their neighbors because they couldn't be defeated now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The tech won't go anywhere, but once the Israelis are cutoff from foreign R&D, it'll stagnate and give the Arabs a chance to catch up.  Similarly, a good chunk of Israeli defense spending, especially on the R&D side, is funded via foreign sources which will dry up.  Personally, I think it'll take longer than fifty years.  Fifty years is merely the bare minimum time frame it could happen in unless the Zionists do something real stupid sooner than that.  But anything real stupid would require the ultranationalists to do something that POs not just the West but also the liberal elements within Israel to the point of risking an Israeli civil war.  Something along the lines of a Neo-Irgun group blowing up the Dome of the Rock, but I just don't see that happening outside of fiction anytime soon.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Trade is not the same as subsidy, and it is the cutting off of Israeli subsidies I was referring to.  Granted, the Arabs have shot themselves in the foot economically by not embracing trade to the same extent as Israel, but the Arabs won't remain dumb forever.  Once they do wise up and embrace the modern world, that'll be another edge Israel currently has that they will lose.

If I thought that the situation now would remain the situation forever, then there would be no reason to think Israel is doomed to eventual extinction.  But the simple fact is that the settlements have always been expanding since day one of the occupation.  Even when for tactical reasons settlements have been given up in certain areas (Sinai and Gaza) that was paired with construction of expanded settlements elsewhere.  Gaza is in many ways the ideal of a Palestinian ghetto for the Zionists.  It's totally incapable of being self sufficient and packs a lot of undesired Arabs into very little territory. (Only Macau, Monaco, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar are more densely populated and only Singapore of those five is fully independent.)   The only problem from the Zionist point of view is that Gaza hasn't been quiescently accepting of being subservient to Israel.

Obviously the situation so far is not such as to cause Israel to lose its essential US support.  Until Israel starts dismantling settlements without building others to replace them, I see no reason to think that the creeping land grab that has been going on since 1967 will not continue indefinitely.  With every new settlement, its support will continue to drop and unless Israel has access to superior military technology compared to its neighbors, it can't indefinitely maintain its military edge which is what it has been dependent upon since day one.