GOP just handed the Democrats the house im November (user search)
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  GOP just handed the Democrats the house im November (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP just handed the Democrats the house im November  (Read 6915 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: July 31, 2014, 11:34:05 AM »

Bandit, I'm curious.  If you were to give ratings for all of KY's congressional districts(Guthrie, Massie, Barr, Rogers, etc.), for 2014, what would your ratings be [as in, tossup, tilt R/D, lean R/D, etc.)

I'd put it about like so...

KY-1 - Lean R
KY-2 - Lean R
KY-3 - Solid D
KY 4 - Lean R (but it will become solid R if the Democrat doesn't start campaigning or move left)
KY 5 - Solid R
KY 6 - Lean D

Not quite as unrealistic as I'd expected from you, but still unrealistic.  Your Lean R's I'd consider to be Solid R's and your Lean D to be a Lean R.  Kentucky 6 isn't totally unwinnable for the D's, but it'll need a strong candidate and a good Democratic year to do it.  Can't say if the former is the case, but it's doubtful that the latter will pertain.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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Posts: 42,144
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2014, 01:35:17 PM »

Not quite as unrealistic as I'd expected from you, but still unrealistic.

In my scenario, only one seat flips - and it's in Lexington.

Granted, and while that flip is not impossible, I don't see it likely as you have it.
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