Won't deferring the individual mandate be a fiscal time bomb?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If the insurance was worth $229/month why wouldn't our 29 year old purchase health insurance?  Why does he have to pay $52/month tax if he doesn't?

I see you are making a common mistake here.  While the insurance has a price of $229/month to our hypothetical 29 yer old, what it is worth to him could be more or less than its price.  If it's worth more to him than it's price he'll buy (unless he can find other things that are worth even more to him at that price that he could obtain)  If it's not worth $229/month to him he won't buy.  It's elementary microeconomics, which far too many people tend to ignore, including many who should know better.

Also since the $52/month is a sunk cost for him in this scenario, the actual cost of his decision to but insurance is not $52/month but $177/month ($229-$52).  Hence the purpose of the tax is to make the cost of insurance lower, altho the price remains the same.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This assumes that the $52 would be paid, and the only way it can be collected if not paid, is against tax refunds as I understand it. And therein lies one of the problems of course.

Here's a newsflash for you Torie.  Most people get refunds.  The default paycheck deductions cause most people to overpay their taxes unless they have a significant amount of non-wage income  or they go to the effort of having less taken out.  Ostensibly it's done that way to protect people from having to scrape together at the last moment the money needed to pay a tax bill, but in reality, it's so that Uncle Sam can get an interest-free loan from it taxpayers.

Now it's possible that after getting snookered out of their refund by Uncle Sam the first time they have to pay the tax, some people will choose to change their ways, but not all of them will decide that it's better to change their deductions than to start buying health insurance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes, that may well be, but if you know you will get dunned, you can increase the number of deductions you claim on your W-2 form, so you never get a tax refund.

Yes, you can do it, and I've done it, tho never to the level you have, but most people do not, and especially not most people at the level of income where one has a job that does not offer employer-provided insurance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes, that may well be, but if you know you will get dunned, you can increase the number of deductions you claim on your W-2 form, so you never get a tax refund.

Yes, you can do it, and I've done it, tho never to the level you have, but most people do not, and especially not most people at the level of income where one has a job that does not offer employer-provided insurance.

The IRS over withholds on someone who makes $12.08/hour, $40/week, filing single, standard deductions?

Someone's got to be getting refunds or there wouldn't be all those ads for refund anticipation loans each tax season that prey on the gullible.