SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) to challenge Gov. Nikki Haley (R) again in 2014

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sheheen will at least be able to keep it close, but for him to have an even chance or better required Romney to beat Obama and the economy to sour.

Now he needs the economy to do middling.  If it's poor, Obama will get the blame and if it's good, Haley will get the credit.  Or else he needs Haley to make a major blunder, but at least in that respect she hasn't been following in the footsteps of Sanford. (Plus she probably carries a proper pocket flashlight in her purse so that she doesn't need to use a cellphone for that.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

According to the Greenville News, Nikki Haley's poll numbers have been steadily rising.   The upstate, Charleston, and a few other counties will give Haley the election though.  Though I don't agree with everything she's done, I don't think she's a bad minister.  It will be more interesting to see how Lindsay Graham does.  If he wins the primary (which he probably will), then the right Democrat could definitely beat him.

The only way Graham loses the general election is if he gets caught with a live boy or a dead girl in his bed.  His only real worry is  primary race, but his poll numbers among Republicans would have to keep dropping like they have the past couple of months for him to be vulnerable.  Any primary opponent who would be a real threat to him is likely going to need to raise at least a million dollars by the end of the year.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only way Graham loses the general election is if he gets caught with a live boy or a dead girl in his bed.  His only real worry is  primary race, but his poll numbers among Republicans would have to keep dropping like they have the past couple of months for him to be vulnerable.  Any primary opponent who would be a real threat to him is likely going to need to raise at least a million dollars by the end of the year.

Graham isn't very conservative though.    Some conservatives will stay home, allowing a strong democratic candidate to win.  Though his chances of losing are slim, that's true.  I think Graham has a large amount of funding stored up though, so it will be hard to beat him.  If you live in South Carolina you know what I mean.  Advertisements for him are all over the internet.  Tim Scott is safe though.  Back on topic, Nikki Haley is probably going to win.   She represents an anti federal government (Tea Party) movement which is still fairly popular in South Carolina.  The democratic counties can't really upset the upstate, Charleston, and the other counties won fairly easily by a Republican.

Charleston isn't a Republican county.  The portions in the 1st district are, but the portions in the 6th more than compensate.  Now the other two counties in the Charleston metro, Dorchester and Berkeley are fairly Republican so the Charleston metro area as a whole is Republican, but still not as Republican as the statewide average.

If any of the Democratic heavy hitters goes after a Senate seat, it'll likely be Scott's, since as you point out, he's the more conservative of our two Senators and he has neither the deep coffers nor the experience in running a statewide campaign that Graham has.  However, I don't see the Democrats having a deep enough bench to wage two major statewide campaigns at the same time. With Sheheen running against Haley, the major general election battle is set for 2014.  If the Democrats make a second push, I think it'll be to retake Superintendent of Education.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Maybe Haley is a bit unpopular but I suppose she's not hated so she will easily recover! So an open seat would be the best thing to happen. After all, I don't see the sc pubs nominating a decent republican!

I don't think you'd consider any SC Republican decent, but the GOP has a deep bench.  There are several of the statewide officers who would have at worst no more difficulty than Haley in dealing with Sheheen.  That even includes our Attorney General.  Heck, if the Dems don't run someone against his dad this time I may just write in Alan Wilson to replace his father Joe as the Congressman from the second district.  Alan has proven to be surprisingly competent at his job considering who his father is.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

http://www.fitsnews.com/2013/06/28/sources-tim-scott-will-run-if-nikki-haley-doesnt/
Is this  HP popular?

Nah, Will Folks couldn't get elected dog catcher here.  Oh, you mean Tim Scott, well yeah.  SCGOP was Tea Party before there was a Tea Party.  There's a reason why despite Graham's campaign warchest there's always talk of a primary challenge for him. Graham's on the left wing of the SCGOP.

By contrast, Scott's views are not outside the mainstream of the SCGOP and he has proven experience as a campaigner.  The only thing that would keep him from the governor's mansion if he were to run in 2014 or 2018 would be that being from the low country, he might have a harder time winning the nomination than would expected of a sitting Senator.  The core of the SCGOP is in the upstate and it's been over two decades since the Republican gubernatorial nominee came from there.